Table 2.
The relative impact of the modeled scenarios for TB incidence and TB related deaths in four countries of the Western Pacific region. Results for Viet Nam and Lao People's Democratic Republic were based on the TIME Impact model, and the results for China and the Philippines were extracted from modelling estimates extracted from the literature [9],[10]. The scenarios are defined in Table 1.
| Scenario | Viet Nam |
Lao People's Democratic Republic |
China | Philippines | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence in 2030 per 100,000 (relative reduction from baseline) | Total TB deaths 2020–30 (relative reduction from baseline) | Cost-effectiveness (US$/DALY averted) | Incidence in 2030 per 100,000 (relative reduction from baseline) | Total TB deaths 2020–30 (relative reduction from baseline) | Cost-effectiveness (US$/DALY averted) | Reduction in incidence in 2025 (relative from baseline) | Reduction in incidence in 2025 (relative from baseline) | |
| Counterfactual | 1162 | 943,600 | n/a | 655 | 119,400 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Baseline | 100 | 131,500 | n/a | 138 | 32,500 | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| GeneXpert | 88 (12%) | 120,400 (8%) | $81 | 134 (3%) | 30,900 (5%) | $118 | 0% | 9% |
| Patient support | 97 (3%) | 128,000 (3%) | c/s | 130 (6%) | 30,900 (5%) | $929 | 0%−11% | n/a |
| Paediatric PT | 100 (0%) | 131,300 (0%) | c/s | 132 (4%) | 31,200 (4%) | $6 | n/a | n/a |
| ACF: moderate untargeted | 90 (10%) | 122,300 (7%) | $1209 | 131 (5%) | 30,600 (6%) | $1491 | n/a | n/a |
| ACF: intensive untargeted | 77 (23%) | 109,800 (17%) | $2267 | 123 (11%) | 28,500 (12%) | $675 | n/a | n/a |
| ACF: moderate targeted | 71 (29%) | 102,500 (22%) | $537 | 116 (16%) | 26,600 (18%) | $182 | 2%−17% | n/a |
| ACF: intensive targeted | 55 (45%) | 82,900 (37%) | $1476 | 103 (25%) | 22,100 (32%) | $404 | n/a | 16% |
| ACF: intensive untargeted, limited PT | 72 (28%) | 105,200 (20%) | $1849 | 66 (52%) | 23,700 (27%) | $273 | n/a | n/a |
| ACF: intensive untargeted with PT | 63 (37%) | 99,000 (25%) | $1603 | 10 (93%) | 16,800 (48%) | $135 | n/a | n/a |
| ACF: intensive targeted with PT | 52 (48%) | 84,100 (36%) | $1415 | 6 (96%) | 14,100 (57%) | $210 | 51%−80% | n/a |
| Combination strategy | 40 (60%) | 67,600 (49%) | $1257 | 5 (96%) | 13,300 (59%) | $322 | 56%−80% | 34% |
| End TB combination strategy | 25 (75%) | 47,600 (64%) | $3016 | 5 (96%) | 13,300 (59%) | $322 | n/a | n/a |
ACF, active case finding; DALY, disability-adjusted life year; PT, preventive therapy; n/a, not applicable.