Table 4. Results of GLMs in relationship of the confirmed cases over population size per 100000 at every 5 consecutive days (CCOPSPTT) with socio-economic determinants (GDP and population), spatial distance (DW and DLPC), climate factors (relative air humidity, solar radiation intensity and average temperature) and time in cities outside and within Hubei province.
| Types | Regression parameters | Baseline model | Time-delay model | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coefficients | Coefficients | ||||||
| Estimate | SE | p-value | Estimate | SE | p-value | ||
| Hubei province | Intercept | -0.02 | 0.01 | 0.28 | -0.02 | 0.01 | 0.31 |
| Population (Ten thousand) | -1×E-5 | 9×E-6 | 0.20 | -1×E-5 | 9×E-6 | 0.23 | |
| GDP (Hundreds of millions RMB) | 5×E-6 | 6×E-7 | <0.001*** | 4×E-6 | 5×E-7 | <0.001*** | |
| DW (km) | -1×E-5 | 1×E-5 | 0.25 | -1×E-5 | 1×E-5 | 0.23 | |
| Relative air humidity (%) | 2×E-4 | 2×E-4 | 0.11 | 1×E-4 | 2×E-4 | 0.12 | |
| Solar radiation intensity (h) | 5×E-4 | 4×E-4 | 0.27 | 4×E-4 | 4×E-4 | 0.26 | |
| Average temperature (°C) | -1×E-3 | 6×E-4 | 0.06 | -1×E-3 | 6×E-4 | 0.07 | |
| Time (d) | 4×E-4 | 3×E-4 | 0.11 | 3×E-4 | 3×E-4 | 0.12 | |
| AIC | -635.68 | -643.23 | |||||
| Marginal R2 | 0.52 | 0.51 | |||||
| Conditional R2 | 0.52 | 0.51 | |||||
| Other provinces | Intercept | 5×E-5 | 9×E-6 | <0.001*** | 4×E-5 | 9×E-6 | <0.001*** |
| Population (Ten thousand) | 9×E-8 | 1×E-8 | <0.001*** | 8×E-8 | 1×E-8 | <0.001*** | |
| GDP (Hundreds of millions RMB) | 1×E-8 | 9×E-10 | <0.001*** | 1×E-8 | 1×E-9 | <0.001*** | |
| DW (km) | -2×E-8 | 6×E-9 | <0.01** | -2×E-8 | 6×E-9 | <0.01** | |
| DLPC (km) | -6×E-9 | 2×E-8 | 0.75 | -5×E-9 | 2×E-8 | 0.75 | |
| Relative air humidity (%) | -4×E-8 | 3×E-8 | <0.05* | -4×E-8 | 3×E-8 | <0.05* | |
| Solar radiation intensity (h) | 3×E-6 | 8×E-7 | <0.001*** | 4×E-6 | 7×E-7 | <0.001*** | |
| Average temperature (°C) | 4×E-7 | 3×E-7 | <0.05* | 3×E-7 | 3×E-7 | <0.05* | |
| Time (d) | -4×E-6 | 3×E-7 | <0.001*** | -5×E-6 | 4×E-7 | <0.001*** | |
| AIC | -32617.20 | -32634.55 | |||||
| Marginal R2 | 0.33 | 0.32 | |||||
| Conditional R2 | 0.33 | 0.32 | |||||
The introduction of DW and DLPC see Table 1. The robustness of the model was tested by the similarity of regression coefficients between the baseline and time-delay models. If the regression coefficients are close to each other between the two models, indicating that our model has high robustness.