Table 3.
Outcomes of the sensitivity analysis for the National strategy.
| Scenario tested | Cases averted 2020–2030 | Deaths averted 2020–2030 | Total direct costs 2020–2030 (health system perspective) (million US$) | Cost per DALY averted at 2030 (health system perspective) | Year becomes cost-saving (societal perspective) | Net economic benefit at 2030 (societal perspective) (million US$) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Point estimate | 39,616 | 24,515 | $89 | $243 | 2024 | $553 |
| Test positivity rate is prevalence based rather than 2/prevalence | 39,616 | 24,515 | $113 | $311 | 2025 | $529 |
| 25% of people incur liver disease costs (rather that 9%) | 39,616 | 24,515 | $174 | $477 | 2026 | $468 |
| 50% of people incur liver disease costs (rather that 9%) | 39,616 | 24,515 | $308 | $844 | 2028 | $334 |
| 0% of staffing and overhead costs included compared to 50% (Ab test = $1.17; RNA test = $34.51; treatment = $86.76) | 39,616 | 24,515 | $12 | $34 | 2023 | $630 |
| Double staffing and overhead costs included compared to 50% (Ab test = $32.59; RNA test = $34.51; treatment = $328.92) | 39,616 | 24,515 | $169 | $464 | 2026 | $473 |
| DAAs cost $200 (compared to $86.76) | 39,616 | 24,515 | $151 | $413 | 2025 | $491 |
| DAAs cost $40 (compared to $86.76) | 39,616 | 24,515 | $63 | $173 | 2024 | $579 |
| Primary prevention among general population (20% reduction in probability of infection, scaled up 2020–2025) | 65,952 | 24,548 | $89 | $243 | 2024 | $561 |
| Primary prevention among general population (40% reduction in probability of infection, scaled up 2020–2025) | 88,670 | 24,582 | $89 | $242 | 2024 | $568 |
| Primary prevention among general population (60% reduction in probability of infection, scaled up 2020–2025) | 108,564 | 24,612 | $89 | $242 | 2024 | $574 |
| Primary prevention PWID (20% reduction in probability of infection, scaled up 2020–2025) | 50,382 | 24,543 | $89 | $243 | 2024 | $557 |
| Primary prevention among PWID (40% reduction in probability of infection, scaled up 2020–2025) | 63,546 | 24,577 | $89 | $242 | 2024 | $560 |
| Primary prevention PWID (60% reduction in probability of infection, scaled up 2020–2025) | 79,499 | 24,617 | $89 | $242 | 2024 | $565 |