Table 3.

Direct and indirect effects of the county-level explanatory variables on COVID-19 incidence as of April 27th and July 8th (full sample, n = 643).

	Variables	Direct effect on incidence as of April 27th (i.e., indirect effect on incidence as of July 8th)		Direct effect on incidence as of July 8th
		Estimate	p value	Estimate	p value
Vulnerable population	% Female	−0.264	⁎⁎⁎	−0.093	⁎⁎⁎
	% Under 18	0.181	⁎⁎⁎	0.287	⁎⁎⁎
	% Over 65	0.216	⁎⁎⁎	0.071	⁎⁎
	% African American	0.140	⁎⁎⁎	0.019	0.495
	% Asian	−0.104	⁎⁎	−0.011	0.672
	20th percentile income	0.362	⁎⁎⁎	−0.068	0.115
	Income ratio	0.283	⁎⁎⁎	0.056	0.114
	% Unemployed	−0.125	⁎⁎⁎	0.010	0.710
	% Smokers	0.137	⁎⁎	−0.059	⁎
	Average daily PM2.5	−0.041	0.178	−0.077	⁎⁎⁎
Transmission pathways	Population density	0.586	⁎⁎⁎	0.072	⁎⁎
	Mobility index			0.052	⁎
	% Severe housing problems	0.217	⁎⁎⁎	0.097	⁎⁎
	Association rate	0.144	⁎⁎⁎	0.114	⁎⁎⁎
	% Professional, scientific, and technical services	−0.227	⁎⁎⁎	0.009	0.772
	% Finance and insurance	0.023	0.478	0.046	⁎⁎
	Food environment index	0.154	⁎⁎⁎	−0.017	0.588
Healthcare resources	PCP ratio	0.195	⁎⁎⁎	0.115	⁎⁎⁎
	COVID-19 incidence as of April 27th			0.713	⁎⁎⁎

Chi-square = 2.322; Degrees of freedom = 1; Chi-square/Degrees of freedom =2.322; p value = 0.128; Root mean square error of approximation = 0.045; Comparative fit index = 0.999.

^⁎P < 0.05.

^⁎⁎P < 0.01.

^⁎⁎⁎P < 0.001.