Table 2:

Relationship Between OxyContin Misuse and Changes in Heroin Death Rates

Outcome:	Heroin Deaths per 100,000
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
A. Total Heroin Deaths per 100,000
Initial OxyContin (3 Year Effect)	2.212** (1.012)	2.804*** (1.041)	2.523** (1.065)	3.581*** (1.074)	1.420*** (0.616)	1.591*** (0.608)
Initial Pain Reliever (3 Year Effect)				−0.495** (0.241)		−0.210* (0.114)
Mean of Dep. Variable (2008–09):	1.060
B. Heroin-Only Deaths per 100,000 (T40.1 but not also T40.2-T40.4)
Initial OxyContin (3 Year Effect)	1.497 (0.911)	2.068** (0.879)	1.849** (0.920)	2.694*** (0.894)	1.518** (0.647)	1.727*** (0.649)
Initial Pain Reliever (3 Year Effect)				−0.392* (0.198)		−0.194* (0.116)
Mean of Dep. Variable (2008–09):	0.876
State and Time-Varying Covariates	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Policy Variables	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Estimator	OLS	OLS	OLS	OLS	Poisson	Poisson

Notes: Standard errors in parentheses adjusted for clustering at the state-level. State fixed effects and year fixed effects included in all specifications. Each model also includes a linear trend interacted with initial nonmedical OxyContin misuse as well as a post-2011 indicator interacted with initial nonmedical OxyContin misuse. Finally, a separate post-2011 linear trend interacted with initial nonmedical OxyContin misuse is also included. We report the 3 year post-2011 effect of the initial OxyContin variable. Regressions are weighted by population. Years 2008–2013 are used.

^***Significant at the 1% level

^**Significant at the 5% level

^*Significant at the 10% level.