Table 4:

Relationship Between OxyContin Misuse and Changes in Opioid Death Rates

Outcome:	Overdose Deaths per 100,000
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
A. Total Opioid Deaths per 100,000 (T40.2-T40.4)
Initial OxyContin (3 Year Effect)	−1.135 (1.921)	−0.266 (1.765)	−0.420 (1.698)	0.789 (1.836)	0.089 (0.219)	0.146 (0.253)
Initial Pain Reliever (3 Year Effect)				−0.554 (0.358)		−0.067 (0.052)
Mean of Dep. Variable (2008–09):	5.192
B. Natural Opioid Deaths per 100,000 (T40.2)
Initial OxyContin (3 Year Effect)	−2.699 (1.888)	−2.243 (1.810)	−2.388 (1.700)	−1.700 (1.821)	−0.652** (0.293)	−0.629** (0.312)
Initial Pain Reliever (3 Year Effect)				−0.304 (0.342)		−0.023 (0.067)
Mean of Dep. Variable (2008–09):	3.233
C. Natural Opioid-Only Deaths per 100,000 (T40.2, but not also T40.1, T40.3, or T40.4)
Initial OxyContin (3 Year Effect)	−3.015* (1.671)	−2.636* (1.555)	−2.742* (1.392)	−2.337 (1.423)	−0.794*** (0.305)	−0.807*** (0.309)
Initial Pain Reliever (3 Year Effect)				−0.167 (0.275)		0.016 (0.063)
Mean of Dep. Variable (2008–09):	2.593
State and Time-Varying Covariates	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Policy Variables	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Estimator	OLS	OLS	OLS	OLS	Poisson	Poisson

Notes: Standard errors in parentheses adjusted for clustering at the state-level. State fixed effects and year fixed effects included in all specifications. Each model also includes a linear trend interacted with initial nonmedical OxyContin misuse as well as a post-2011 indicator interacted with initial nonmedical OxyContin misuse. Finally, a separate post-2011 linear trend interacted with initial nonmedical OxyContin misuse is also included. We report the 3 year post-2011 effect of the initial OxyContin variable. Regressions are weighted by population. Years 2008–2013 are used.

^***Significant at the 1% level

^**Significant at the 5% level

^*Significant at the 10% level.