Table 5:

OxyContin Misuse and Changes in Synthetic Opioid Death Rates

Outcome:	Overdose Deaths per 100,000
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)
A. Synthetic Opioid Deaths per 100,000 (T40.4)
Initial OxyContin (3 Year Effect)	0.454 (0.405)	0.616* (0.366)	0.641* (0.349)	0.869* (0.444)	1.137*** (0.262)	1.223*** (0.339)
Initial Pain Reliever (3 Year Effect)				−0.106 (0.108)		−0.085 (0.082)
Mean of Dep. Variable (2008–09):	0.887
B. Synthetic Opioid-Only Deaths per 100,000 (T40.4, but not also T40.1, T40.2, or T40.3)
Initial OxyContin (3 Year Effect)	0.124 (0.257)	0.245 (0.223)	0.267 (0.214)	0.363 (0.243)	0.933*** (0.234)	0.944*** (0.240)
Initial Pain Reliever (3 Year Effect)				−0.044 (0.063)		−0.023 (0.066)
Mean of Dep. Variable (2008–09):	0.624
State and Time-Varying Covariates	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Policy Variables	No	No	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Estimator	OLS	OLS	OLS	OLS	Poisson	Poisson

Notes: Standard errors in parentheses adjusted for clustering at the state-level. State fixed effects and year fixed effects included in all specifications. Each model also includes a linear trend interacted with initial nonmedical OxyContin misuse as well as a post-2011 indicator interacted with initial nonmedical OxyContin misuse. Finally, a separate post-2011 linear trend interacted with initial nonmedical OxyContin misuse is also included. We report the 3 year post-2011 effect of the initial OxyContin variable. Regressions are weighted by population. Years 2008–2013 are used.

^***Significant at the 1% level

^**Significant at the 5% level

^*Significant at the 10% level.