Table 1.

Model parameters

Parameters	Value	Derivation and Reference
Transmission probability per contact ($b$)	0.0437 (Daegu, South Korea)	1. The point estimates for baseline R0 and the transmission probability per contact (b) in Wuhan, China, were 3.6 and 0.04405, respectively, by fitting the model to the slope of the exponential phase, January 6 to January 22, 2020, Wuhan, China. (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention 2020).2. Based on a baseline R0 of 3.6 for the SARS-CoV-2 strain (imported from Wuhan, China) which initiated the Daegu outbreak, the point estimate for the transmission probability per contact (b) in Daegu, South Korea is 0.0437, by solving the Equation (1) (see Method section).
The proportion of superspreaders among infectious patients ($P_{SSE}$)	14.7%	Based on South Korean data (Lim et al., 2021)
Contact rate in SSE group ($k_{SSE}$)	54.4/day (mean)	Based on (1) an average contact rate of 10/day (Wallinga et al., 2006); and(2) a $k_{SSE}/k_{non-SSE}$ ratio of 23.13 (estimated by South Korean data: 14.7% superspreaders caused 80% secondary infections) (Lim et al., 2021)
Contact rate in the non-SSE group ($k_{non-SSE}$)	2.4/day (mean)	Based on (1) an average contact rate of 10/day (Wallinga et al., 2006), and (2) a $k_{SSE}//k_{non-SSE}$ ratio of 23.13 (estimated by South Korean data: 14.7% of the superspreaders caused 80% of the secondary infections) (Lim et al., 2021)
The incubation period (from infection to the onset of illnesses)	3.0 days (Daegu, South Korea) (mean)	The incubation period can be varied by the different settings and different periods of the COVID-19 pandemic (Xin et al., 2021)1. The point estimate for the incubation period in Wuhan, China, was 5.5 days (mean) (Lauer et al., 2020).2. The point estimate for the incubation period in Daegu, South Korea, was 3.0 days (median) (Lee et al., 2020)
Presymptomatic infectious period before the onset of illnesses	2.5 days (mean)	(He et al., 2020, Slifka and Gao, 2020, Wei et al., 2020)
The latency period (infected but non-infectious) ($1/\sigma$)	0.5 days (Daegu, South Korea) (mean)	1. The point estimate for the bvlatency period in Wuhan, China was 3.0 days, i.e.5.5 days (incubation period) (Lauer et al., 2020) minus 2.5 days (pre-symptomatic infectious period before the onset of illnesses) (He et al., 2020, Slifka and Gao, 2020, Wei et al., 2020) (the uncertainty range: 0–5 days)2. The point estimate for the latency period in Daegu, South Korea was 0.5 days, i.e., 3.0 days (incubation period) (Lee et al., 2020) minus 2.5 days (the presymptomatic infectious period before the onset of illnesses) (He et al., 2020, Slifka and Gao, 2020, Wei et al., 2020)
The infectious duration after the onset of illnesses	6.0 days (mean)(uncertainty range: 4.6 to 9.1 days).	The point estimate is based on Taiwan contact-tracing data (Cheng et al., 2020) and is in line with Chinese clinical study data:4.6 days (onset to first medical visit (Li et al., 2020))to 9.1 days (onset to hospitalization (Li et al., 2020))(assume that patients were isolated after medical visits or hospitalization).
The infectious period ($1/\gamma$)	8.5 days (mean) (uncertainty range: 7.1 to 11.6 days, i.e., 4.6 to 9.1 days plus 2.5 days, respectively)	2.5 infectious days before the onset of symptoms plus 6.0 infectious days after the onset of symptoms.We assume that asymptomatic infections have the same total infectious period.
Infection-related mortality among severe/critical cases ($\rho$)	12%	(The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team, 2020)
The infection-related mortality rate in those who were hospitalized ($\mathrm{m}$)	0.0097 /day	Calculated by the formula (Keeling and Rohani, 2008)m = ($\rho /\left(1-\rho \right)$)$\left(\mathrm{r}+\mu \right)$
The natural-causes mortality rate ($\mu$)	1/78.5 years	(The World Bank 2021)
The birth rate ($\mu$)	1/78.5 years	We assume a stable population size (birth rate identical to natural-cause death rate).
The proportion of asymptomatic infection ($a$)	10%	(Chang, 2021, Wong et al., 2020), (Arons et al., 2020)
The ratio of transmission probability of asymptomatic patients versus symptomatic patients ($b_A$)	0.7	(Chaw et al., 2020, Hu et al., 2021)
The proportion of severe/ critical cases ($h$)	19%	(The Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Emergency Response Epidemiology Team, 2020)
Time from hospitalization to recovery among severe/critical patients ($1/r$)	14 days (mean)	(Huang et al., 2020).
Time from onset of symptoms to laboratory confirmation	5.3 days	For the Shincheonji religious group (Kim et al., 2020)
Time from the onset of infectiousness to quarantine ($1/d$)	7.8 days (mean)	5.3 days plus 2.5 days (the presymptomatic infectious period) before the onset of illnesses (He et al., 2020, Slifka and Gao, 2020, Wei et al., 2020)
The proportion of contact tracing ($q_c$)	0% to 90%	Intervention scenarios
The duration of quarantine among mild cases ($1/\tau$)	14 days	Intervention scenario, based on current standard practice
The duration from quarantine to hospitalization among severe/critical patients ($1/{\tau }_H$)	3 days (mean)	7 days (mean duration from the onset of symptom to the onset of severe disease (Huang et al., 2020)), minus 4 days (mean duration from the onset of symptom to diagnosis in the intervention scenario).
The fraction of the contact rate ($f$) rendered less effective under social distancing	0% to 90%	Intervention scenarios
The proportion ($p$) of decrease in transmission probability per contact ($b$) under social distancing	90%	(Chu et al., 2020)
The population size ($N$)	30,000 (10,000 to 50,000)	The estimated number of Shincheonji Church members and their associates in Daegu, South Korea
Initial infectious population	5	Initial condition of simulation.