Table 2.
xtscc Method | xtpcse Method | xtgls Method | |||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
k=10 | k=15 | k=18 | k=22 | k=26 | k=10 | k=15 | k=18 | k=22 | k=26 | k=10 | k=15 | k=18 | k=22 | k=26 | |
Lockdown measure | |||||||||||||||
yt−1 | 0.07*** | 0.05*** | 0.04*** | 0.03*** | 0.03*** | 0.07*** | 0.05*** | 0.04*** | 0.03*** | 0.03*** | 0.07*** | 0.05*** | 0.04*** | 0.03*** | 0.03*** |
(5.2) | (4.81) | (4.74) | (4.72) | (4.64) | (20.47) | (18.55) | (16.96) | (15.2) | (13.56) | (54.65) | (50.11) | (46.18) | (42.17) | (38.05) | |
dt-k | 83.16 | −55.11 | −119.68 | −187.93* | −241.50** | 83.16** | −55.11 | −119.68*** | −187.93*** | −241.50*** | 83.16** | −55.11 | −119.68** | −187.93*** | −241.50*** |
(1.32) | (−0.76) | (−1.43) | (−1.95) | (−2.35) | −2.52 | (−1.52) | (−3.02) | (−4.22) | (−4.87) | 1.97 | (−1.19) | (−2.40) | (−3.47) | (−4.08) | |
(y.d)t-k | −0.06*** | −0.05*** | −0.04*** | −0.04*** | −0.03*** | −0.06*** | −0.05*** | −0.04*** | −0.04*** | −0.03*** | −0.06*** | −0.05*** | −0.04*** | −0.04*** | −0.03*** |
(−4.73) | (−4.39) | (−4.35) | (−4.37) | (−4.32) | (−18.44) | (−16.14) | (−14.39) | (−12.49) | (−10.72) | (−48.99) | (−43.12) | (−38.62) | (−33.93) | (−29.31) | |
const | 51.21 | 119.71** | 156.26** | 195.60*** | 229.74*** | 51.21* | 119.71*** | 156.26*** | 195.60*** | 229.74*** | 51.21** | 119.71*** | 156.26*** | 195.60*** | 229.74*** |
(1.46) | (2.53) | (2.89) | (3.23) | (3.54) | (1.83) | (4.03) | (4.97) | (5.77) | (6.38) | (2.09) | (4.56) | (5.63) | (6.64) | (7.33) | |
R-sq | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | 0.61 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.45 | |||||
F (3,14) | 130.98 | 98.14 | 62.72 | 25.75 | 14.39 | ||||||||||
Wald-chi2 | 490.12 | 379.66 | 316.98 | 259.36 | 214.69 | 3237.24 | 2639.73 | 2222.35 | 1837.56 | 1492.28 | |||||
Nb.obs. | 2087 | 2012 | 1967 | 1907 | 1847 | 2087 | 2012 | 1967 | 1907 | 1847 | 2087 | 2012 | 1967 | 1907 | 1847 |
Social distancing measure | |||||||||||||||
yt−1 | 0.11*** | 0.07*** | 0.06*** | 0.05*** | 0.04*** | 0.11*** | 0.07*** | 0.06*** | 0.05*** | 0.04*** | 0.11*** | 0.07*** | 0.06*** | 0.05*** | 0.04*** |
(14.58) | (11.28) | (10.1) | (8.67) | (7.46) | (32.13) | (26.73) | (23.84) | (20.24) | (17.34) | (68.84) | (61.01) | (56.34) | (50.49) | (45.06) | |
dt-k | −15.01 | −115.7 | −176.01 | −237.42* | −303.35** | −15.01 | −115.70*** | −176.01*** | −237.42*** | −303.35*** | −15.01 | −115.70*** | −176.01*** | −237.42*** | −303.35*** |
(−0.38) | (−1.43) | (−1.74) | (−1.97) | (−2.32) | (−0.51) | (−3.23) | (−4.40) | (−5.14) | (−5.82) | (−0.44) | (−3.04) | (−4.32) | (−5.34) | (−6.28) | |
(y.d)t-k | −0.11*** | −0.07*** | −0.06*** | −0.05*** | −0.04*** | −0.11*** | −0.07*** | −0.06*** | −0.05*** | −0.04*** | −0.11*** | −0.07*** | −0.06*** | −0.05*** | −0.04*** |
(−14.01) | (−10.89) | (−9.80) | (−8.41) | (−7.20) | (−29.87) | (−23.99) | (−20.96) | (−17.30) | (−14.37) | (−64.78) | (−55.64) | (−50.34) | (−43.84) | (−37.85) | |
const | 61.72* | 141.38** | 187.97** | 239.40** | 291.63*** | 61.72** | 141.38*** | 187.97*** | 239.40*** | 291.63*** | 61.72** | 141.38*** | 187.97*** | 239.40*** | 291.63*** |
(2.13) | (2.34) | (2.53) | (2.76) | (3.07) | (2.25) | (4.43) | (5.45) | (6.24) | (6.99) | (2.53) | (5.22) | (6.52) | (7.67) | (8.67) | |
R-sq | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.53 | |||||
F (3,14) | 101.99 | 52.27 | 40.23 | 26.99 | 18.75 | ||||||||||
Wald-chi2 | 1229.82 | 804.25 | 627.22 | 448.02 | 333.2 | 5330.79 | 3985.28 | 3325.6 | 2620.86 | 2068.75 | |||||
Nb.obs. | 2087 | 2012 | 1967 | 1907 | 1847 | 2087 | 2012 | 1967 | 1907 | 1847 | 2087 | 2012 | 1967 | 1907 | 1847 |
Movement restriction measure | |||||||||||||||
yt−1 | 0.11*** | 0.07*** | 0.06*** | 0.04*** | 0.04*** | 0.11*** | 0.07*** | 0.06*** | 0.04*** | 0.04*** | 0.11*** | 0.07*** | 0.06*** | 0.04*** | 0.04*** |
(14.67) | (11.42) | (10.2) | (8.73) | (7.5) | (32.52) | (26.9) | (23.9) | (20.23) | (17.33) | (69.38) | (61.28) | (56.48) | (50.52) | (45.04) | |
dt-k | −29.16 | −128.62 | −187.60* | −247.04* | −314.12** | −29.16 | −128.62*** | −187.60*** | −247.04*** | −314.12*** | −29.16 | −128.62*** | −187.60*** | −247.04*** | −314.12*** |
(−0.73) | (−1.56) | (−1.84) | (−2.04) | (−2.37) | (−0.95) | (−3.47) | (−4.54) | (−5.20) | (−5.88) | (−0.86) | (−3.39) | (−4.61) | (−5.57) | (−6.52) | |
(y.d)t-k | −0.11*** | −0.07*** | −0.06*** | −0.05*** | −0.04*** | −0.11*** | −0.07*** | −0.06*** | −0.05*** | −0.04*** | −0.11*** | −0.07*** | −0.06*** | −0.05*** | −0.04*** |
(−14.12) | (−11.03) | (−9.89) | (−8.45) | (−7.22) | (−30.22) | (−24.14) | (−21.02) | (−17.30) | (−14.37) | (−65.21) | (−55.78) | (−50.37) | (−43.76) | (−37.75) | |
const | 70.06** | 151.37** | 198.76** | 250.82** | 305.44*** | 70.06** | 151.37*** | 198.76*** | 250.82*** | 305.44*** | 70.06*** | 151.37*** | 198.76*** | 250.82*** | 305.44*** |
(2.18) | (2.35) | (2.52) | (2.73) | (3.02) | (2.45) | (4.55) | (5.54) | (6.29) | (7.05) | (2.82) | (5.47) | (6.74) | (7.85) | (8.88) | |
R-sq | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.53 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.63 | 0.58 | 0.53 | |||||
F (3, 14) | 101.96 | 51.49 | 39 | 26.48 | 18.88 | ||||||||||
Wald-chi2 | 1260.84 | 815.13 | 631.11 | 447.62 | 333.33 | 5387.42 | 4007.67 | 3337.93 | 2625.29 | 2073.94 | |||||
Nb.obs. | 2087 | 2012 | 1967 | 1907 | 1847 | 2087 | 2012 | 1967 | 1907 | 1847 | 2087 | 2012 | 1967 | 1907 | 1847 |
Governance and socio-economic measures | |||||||||||||||
yt−1 | 0.02*** | 0.02*** | 0.03*** | 0.02*** | 0.02*** | 0.02*** | 0.02*** | 0.03*** | 0.02*** | 0.02*** | 0.02*** | 0.02*** | 0.03*** | 0.02*** | 0.02*** |
(3.16) | (3.4) | (3.64) | (4.01) | (4.41) | (14.0) | (14.42) | (14.6) | (14.59) | (14.01) | (23.87) | (28.62) | (30.48) | (31.97) | (31.8) | |
dt-k | 146.48 | 47.07 | −21.05 | −150.89 | −242.88* | 146.48** | 47.07 | −21.05 | −150.89*** | −242.88*** | 146.48*** | 47.07 | −21.05 | −150.89*** | −242.88*** |
(1.5) | (0.43) | (−0.18) | (−1.35) | (−2.10) | (2.33) | (0.8) | (−0.37) | (−2.71) | (−4.29) | (2.69) | (0.87) | (−0.39) | (−2.77) | (−4.34) | |
(y.d)t-k | −0.02** | −0.02*** | −0.02*** | −0.02*** | −0.02*** | −0.02*** | −0.02*** | −0.02*** | −0.02*** | −0.02*** | −0.02*** | −0.02*** | −0.02*** | −0.02*** | −0.02*** |
(−2.87) | (−3.03) | (−3.22) | (−3.53) | (−3.86) | (−11.40) | (−11.66) | (−11.67) | (−11.38) | (−10.62) | (−16.80) | (−21.18) | (−22.76) | (−23.76) | (−23.25) | |
const | 127.19* | 164.97* | 194.18* | 253.26** | 299.50*** | 127.19** | 164.97*** | 194.18*** | 253.26*** | 299.50*** | 127.19*** | 164.97*** | 194.18*** | 253.26*** | 299.50*** |
(1.87) | (1.88) | (2.07) | (2.68) | (3.17) | (2.22) | (3.12) | (3.87) | (5.43) | (6.67) | (3.33) | (4.4) | (5.2) | (6.8) | (7.92) | |
R-sq | 0.25 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 0.36 | 0.37 | |||||
F (3, 14) | 4.42 | 8.94 | 18.67 | 55.18 | 35.79 | ||||||||||
Wald-chi2 | 206.68 | 218.55 | 228.59 | 244.34 | 242.55 | 707.16 | 904.26 | 995.89 | 1086.55 | 1083.43 | |||||
Nb.obs. | 2087 | 2012 | 1967 | 1907 | 1847 | 2087 | 2012 | 1967 | 1907 | 1847 | 2087 | 2012 | 1967 | 1907 | 1847 |
Public health measure | |||||||||||||||
yt−1 | 0.10*** | 0.07*** | 0.06*** | 0.04*** | 0.04*** | 0.10*** | 0.07*** | 0.06*** | 0.04*** | 0.04*** | 0.10*** | 0.07*** | 0.06*** | 0.04*** | 0.04*** |
(18.19) | (12.52) | (10.61) | (8.95) | (7.69) | (34.27) | (27.28) | (23.82) | (20.05) | (17.22) | (69.88) | (61.09) | (56.1) | (50.01) | (44.54) | |
dt-k | −28.82 | −124.2 | −175.42 | −231.63* | −293.15* | −28.82 | −124.20*** | −175.42*** | −231.63*** | −293.15*** | −28.82 | −124.20*** | −175.42*** | −231.63*** | −293.15*** |
(−0.72) | (−1.55) | (−1.73) | (−1.88) | (−2.12) | (−0.96) | (−3.33) | (−4.20) | (−4.82) | (−5.46) | (−0.86) | (−3.27) | (−4.30) | (−5.20) | (−6.07) | |
(y.d)t-k | −0.11*** | −0.07*** | −0.06*** | −0.05*** | −0.04*** | −0.11*** | −0.07*** | −0.06*** | −0.05*** | −0.04*** | −0.11*** | −0.07*** | −0.06*** | −0.05*** | −0.04*** |
(−17.58) | (−12.09) | (−10.26) | (−8.66) | (−7.40) | (−31.77) | (−24.41) | (−20.88) | (−17.08) | (−14.23) | (−65.47) | (−55.37) | (−49.80) | (−43.11) | (−37.15) | |
const | 71.30** | 151.78** | 195.72** | 246.82** | 299.31** | 71.30** | 151.78*** | 195.72*** | 246.82*** | 299.31*** | 71.30*** | 151.78*** | 195.72*** | 246.82*** | 299.31*** |
(2.15) | (2.34) | (2.47) | (2.67) | (2.92) | (2.54) | (4.55) | (5.39) | (6.1) | (6.84) | (2.86) | (5.44) | (6.57) | (7.64) | (8.6) | |
R-sq | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.72 | 0.66 | 0.63 | 0.57 | 0.52 | |||||
F (3, 14) | 137.83 | 58.66 | 41.32 | 27.84 | 19.85 | ||||||||||
Wald-chi2 | 1404.21 | 841.8 | 628.29 | 440.5 | 328.36 | 5418.17 | 3966.49 | 3288.42 | 2576.59 | 2035.25 | |||||
Nb.obs. | 2087 | 2012 | 1967 | 1907 | 1847 | 2087 | 2012 | 1967 | 1907 | 1847 | 2087 | 2012 | 1967 | 1907 | 1847 |
Notes: xtscc: Panel regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors; xtpcse: Linear regression with panel-corrected standard errors; xtgls: Fit panel-data models by using GLS. yt−1: the total number of confirmed cases the previous day; dt−k: dummy indicating the government measure is in place for k days. z-values are between parentheses: *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.