Table 3.
Panel Regression with Driscoll–Kraay Standard Errors (for the Complete Sample)
k=1 | k=2 | k=3 | k=4 | k=5 | k=6 | k=7 | k=8 | k=9 | k=10 | k=18 | k=21 | k=22 | k=24 | k=26 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lockdown measure | |||||||||||||||
yt−1 | 0.09*** | 0.09*** | 0.09*** | 0.09*** | 0.09*** | 0.09*** | 0.08*** | 0.08*** | 0.07*** | 0.07*** | 0.04*** | 0.04*** | 0.03*** | 0.03*** | 0.03*** |
(8.03) | (8.96) | (7.33) | (6.18) | (6.71) | (5.97) | (5.85) | (5.5) | (5.23) | (5.04) | (4.46) | (4.34) | (4.41) | (4.38) | (4.31) | |
dt−k | 326.26** | 321.26** | 303.81** | 276.33** | 246.18** | 211.35** | 177.99* | 144.06* | 119.34 | 83.16 | −119.68 | −171.46 | −187.93* | −216.06* | −241.50** |
(2.57) | (2.53) | (2.51) | (2.45) | (2.4) | (2.28) | (2.11) | (1.88) | (1.65) | (1.29) | (−1.36) | (−1.68) | (−1.81) | (−2.01) | (−2.17) | |
(y.d)t−k | −0.08*** | −0.09*** | −0.09*** | −0.09*** | −0.09*** | −0.08*** | −0.08*** | −0.07*** | −0.07*** | −0.06*** | −0.04*** | −0.04*** | −0.04*** | −0.03*** | −0.03*** |
(−7.55) | (−7.91) | (−6.51) | (−5.53) | (−6.07) | (−5.39) | (−5.30) | (−4.99) | (−4.75) | (−4.58) | (−4.10) | (−4.00) | (−4.09) | (−4.08) | (−4.01) | |
const | 18.98 | 1.01 | −9.88 | −9.4 | −13.95 | −1.35 | 8.96 | 22.99 | 35.32 | 51.21 | 156.26** | 187.22** | 195.60*** | 213.08*** | 229.74*** |
(0.76) | (0.05) | (−0.41) | (−0.33) | (−0.47) | (−0.04) | (0.28) | (0.68) | (1.01) | (1.39) | (2.69) | (2.92) | (2.99) | (3.14) | (3.28) | |
R-sq | 0.33 | 0.4 | 0.46 | 0.5 | 0.58 | 0.59 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.53 | 0.49 | 0.49 | 0.47 | 0.45 |
F (3,14) | 22.37 | 43.42 | 42.7 | 42.36 | 55.6 | 61.51 | 77.28 | 90.44 | 106.96 | 128.67 | 59.66 | 33.96 | 22.47 | 15.61 | 12.34 |
Nb.obs. | 2222 | 2207 | 2192 | 2177 | 2162 | 2147 | 2132 | 2117 | 2102 | 2087 | 1967 | 1922 | 1907 | 1877 | 1847 |
Social distancing measure | |||||||||||||||
yt−1 | 0.18*** | 0.47*** | 0.36*** | 0.28*** | 0.22*** | 0.18*** | 0.16*** | 0.14*** | 0.12*** | 0.11*** | 0.06*** | 0.05*** | 0.05*** | 0.04*** | 0.04*** |
8.79 | 3.64 | 7.29 | 11.52 | 18.43 | 18.78 | 18.67 | 16.65 | 15.61 | 14.43 | 9.5 | 8.39 | 8.11 | 7.49 | 6.94 | |
dt−k | 360.65*** | 281.31*** | 177.43** | 120.99** | 86.27** | 60.98** | 42.94 | 20.92 | 10.54 | −15.01 | −176.01 | −224.71* | −237.42* | −266.44* | −303.35** |
3.34 | 3.21 | 2.6 | 2.54 | 2.35 | 2.26 | 1.64 | 0.74 | 0.31 | (−0.37) | (−1.63) | (−1.81) | (−1.85) | (−1.97) | (−2.18) | |
(y.d)t−k | −0.17*** | −0.47*** | −0.36*** | −0.27*** | −0.22*** | −0.18*** | −0.16*** | −0.14*** | −0.12*** | −0.11*** | −0.06*** | −0.05*** | −0.05*** | −0.04*** | −0.04*** |
(−8.41) | (−3.58) | (−7.15) | (−11.22) | (−17.87) | (−18.11) | (−17.97) | (−16.02) | (−14.99) | (−13.87) | (−9.23) | (−8.17) | (−7.89) | (−7.28) | (−6.73) | |
const | 10.08 | −72.53* | −55.11* | −31.78 | −17.19 | 1.32 | 15.22 | 32.44* | 43.67* | 61.72* | 187.97** | 228.17** | 239.40** | 264.00** | 291.63** |
1.55 | (−1.92) | (−1.77) | (−1.53) | (−1.19) | 0.15 | 1.35 | 1.86 | 1.88 | 2.00 | 2.35 | 2.51 | 2.57 | 2.69 | 2.86 | |
R-sq | 0.18 | 0.49 | 0.64 | 0.69 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.74 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 0.53 |
F (3, 14) | 29.69 | 15.09 | 59.37 | 174.53 | 542.12 | 571.9 | 308.74 | 186.38 | 131.54 | 97.96 | 35.71 | 25.99 | 23.7 | 19.44 | 16.25 |
Nb.obs. | 2222 | 2207 | 2192 | 2177 | 2162 | 2147 | 2132 | 2117 | 2102 | 2087 | 1967 | 1922 | 1907 | 1877 | 1847 |
Movement restriction measure | |||||||||||||||
yt−1 | 0.18*** | 0.47*** | 0.36*** | 0.27*** | 0.22*** | 0.18*** | 0.16*** | 0.14*** | 0.12*** | 0.11*** | 0.06*** | 0.05*** | 0.04*** | 0.04*** | 0.04*** |
9.36 | 3.62 | 7.28 | 11.43 | 18.49 | 19.13 | 18.76 | 16.97 | 15.49 | 14.52 | 9.61 | 8.46 | 8.17 | 7.55 | 6.98 | |
dt−k | 344.63*** | 273.67*** | 169.28** | 118.65** | 78.03** | 57.33** | 31.93 | 14.2 | −7.84 | −29.16 | −187.6 | −232.87* | −247.04* | −276.65* | −314.12** |
3.5 | 3.19 | 2.58 | 2.45 | 2.34 | 2.17 | 1.46 | 0.53 | (−0.24) | (−0.70) | (−1.72) | (−1.86) | (−1.91) | (−2.03) | (−2.22) | |
(y.d)t−k | −0.17*** | −0.46*** | −0.36*** | −0.27*** | −0.22*** | −0.18*** | −0.16*** | −0.14*** | −0.12*** | −0.11*** | −0.06*** | −0.05*** | −0.05*** | −0.04*** | −0.04*** |
(−8.97) | (−3.56) | (−7.14) | (−11.13) | (−17.93) | (−18.45) | (−18.07) | (−16.33) | (−14.90) | (−13.98) | (−9.33) | (−8.23) | (−7.94) | (−7.32) | (−6.75) | |
const | 12.27* | −70.90* | −52.67 | −31.19 | −13.6 | 3.14 | 20.81* | 36.40* | 53.49* | 70.06* | 198.76** | 238.55** | 250.82** | 276.51** | 305.44** |
1.82 | (−1.78) | (−1.61) | (−1.34) | (−0.95) | 0.31 | 1.77 | 1.94 | 2.03 | 2.04 | 2.33 | 2.48 | 2.54 | 2.65 | 2.81 | |
R-sq | 0.18 | 0.49 | 0.64 | 0.69 | 0.74 | 0.73 | 0.74 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.58 | 0.55 | 0.53 |
F (3, 14) | 32.66 | 15.1 | 58.97 | 164.48 | 537.56 | 584.54 | 310.49 | 190.9 | 128.81 | 97.76 | 34.66 | 25.35 | 23.22 | 19.26 | 16.31 |
Nb.obs. | 2222 | 2207 | 2192 | 2177 | 2162 | 2147 | 2132 | 2117 | 2102 | 2087 | 1967 | 1922 | 1907 | 1877 | 1847 |
Governance and socio-economic measures | |||||||||||||||
yt−1 | 0.01*** | 0.01*** | 0.01*** | 0.02*** | 0.02*** | 0.02*** | 0.02** | 0.02** | 0.02** | 0.02** | 0.03*** | 0.02*** | 0.02*** | 0.02*** | 0.02*** |
3.88 | 3.73 | 3.49 | 3.3 | 3.12 | 3.02 | 2.95 | 2.91 | 2.89 | 2.89 | 3.32 | 3.56 | 3.67 | 3.87 | 4.04 | |
dt−k | 178.62 | 190.58* | 201.72* | 202.63* | 206.66* | 197.57* | 197.35 | 185.78 | 169.13 | 146.48 | −21.05 | −135.33 | −150.89 | −189.23 | −242.88* |
1.7 | 1.77 | 1.82 | 1.81 | 1.84 | 1.78 | 1.75 | 1.68 | 1.61 | 1.42 | (−0.17) | (−1.13) | (−1.25) | (−1.54) | (−1.93) | |
(y.d)t−k | −0.00*** | −0.01*** | −0.01*** | −0.01*** | −0.01*** | −0.01** | −0.01** | −0.02** | −0.02** | −0.02** | −0.02** | −0.02*** | −0.02*** | −0.02*** | −0.02*** |
(−3.01) | (−4.66) | (−4.14) | (−3.51) | (−3.09) | (−2.88) | (−2.75) | (−2.68) | (−2.64) | (−2.62) | (−2.95) | (−3.14) | (−3.23) | (−3.39) | (−3.53) | |
const | 130.54** | 123.91** | 117.06** | 114.93** | 110.57* | 112.75* | 110.35* | 113.49* | 118.91* | 127.19 | 194.18* | 245.54** | 253.26** | 272.84** | 299.50** |
2.26 | 2.31 | 2.32 | 2.25 | 2.14 | 2.02 | 1.89 | 1.8 | 1.79 | 1.74 | 1.92 | 2.41 | 2.48 | 2.67 | 2.94 | |
R-sq | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.19 | 0.2 | 0.22 | 0.23 | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.34 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.37 |
F (3, 14) | 8.18 | 7.71 | 5.91 | 4.2 | 3.27 | 3.07 | 3.1 | 3.23 | 3.43 | 3.71 | 16.76 | 45.16 | 54.2 | 50.06 | 31.74 |
Nb.obs. | 2222 | 2207 | 2192 | 2177 | 2162 | 2147 | 2132 | 2117 | 2102 | 2087 | 1967 | 1922 | 1907 | 1877 | 1847 |
Public health measure | |||||||||||||||
yt−1 | 0.16*** | 0.37*** | 0.32*** | 0.26*** | 0.21*** | 0.18*** | 0.15*** | 0.13*** | 0.12*** | 0.10*** | 0.06*** | 0.05*** | 0.04*** | 0.04*** | 0.04*** |
16.32 | 3.26 | 5.72 | 9.63 | 15.98 | 20.62 | 23.41 | 22.03 | 20.13 | 18.24 | 10.14 | 8.78 | 8.46 | 7.78 | 7.15 | |
dt−k | 327.08*** | 296.25*** | 204.99** | 137.26** | 94.56** | 57.73** | 33.13 | 8.7 | −8.6 | −28.82 | −175.42 | −219.74 | −231.63* | −261.08* | −293.15* |
3.46 | 3.36 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 2.25 | 2.18 | 1.44 | 0.33 | (−0.26) | (−0.69) | (−1.63) | (−1.75) | (−1.78) | (−1.87) | (−2.00) | |
(y.d)t−k | −0.16*** | −0.36*** | −0.32*** | −0.25*** | −0.21*** | −0.18*** | −0.15*** | −0.13*** | −0.12*** | −0.11*** | −0.06*** | −0.05*** | −0.05*** | −0.04*** | −0.04*** |
(−15.33) | (−3.20) | (−5.60) | (−9.38) | (−15.51) | (−19.89) | (−22.57) | (−21.26) | (−19.45) | (−17.64) | (−9.83) | (−8.52) | (−8.20) | (−7.54) | (−6.90) | |
const | 15.94 | −69.43 | −63.48 | −38.89 | −20.86 | 3.05 | 21.11 | 40.19* | 55.18* | 71.30* | 195.72** | 235.46** | 246.82** | 272.60** | 299.31** |
1.75 | (−1.70) | (−1.66) | (−1.41) | (−1.08) | 0.28 | 1.64 | 1.96 | 1.99 | 2.01 | 2.29 | 2.44 | 2.48 | 2.59 | 2.72 | |
R-sq | 0.19 | 0.45 | 0.61 | 0.68 | 0.73 | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.72 | 0.63 | 0.59 | 0.57 | 0.55 | 0.52 |
F (3, 14) | 93.64 | 10.38 | 31.89 | 90.11 | 286.28 | 597.33 | 475.31 | 285.2 | 186.65 | 134.64 | 37.55 | 27.03 | 24.74 | 20.46 | 17.11 |
Nb.obs. | 2222 | 2207 | 2192 | 2177 | 2162 | 2147 | 2132 | 2117 | 2102 | 2087 | 1967 | 1922 | 1907 | 1877 | 1847 |
Notes: yt−1: the total number of confirmed cases the previous day; dt−k: dummy indicating the government measure is in place for k days. z-values are between parentheses: *p < 0.10, **p < 0.05, ***p < 0.01.