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. 2021 Jul 24;14:3091–3115. doi: 10.2147/RMHP.S312511

Table 4.

Poisson Pseudo likelihood Regression with Multiple Levels of Fixed Effects (for the Complete Sample)

k=1 k=2 k=3 k=4 k=5 k=6 k=7 k=8 k=9 k=10 k=18 k=21 k=22 k=24 k=26
Lockdown measure
yt-1(103) 0.06*** 0.05*** 0.05*** 0.04*** 0.04*** 0.04*** 0.04*** 0.04*** 0.03*** 0.03*** 0.03*** 0.02*** 0.02*** 0.02*** 0.02***
(9.33) (7.51) (6.69) (6.21) (6.25) (6.04) (5.95) (5.88) (5.84) (5.83) (5.66) (5.61) (5.68) (5.68) (5.67)
dt-k 1.27*** 1.20** 1.16** 1.10** 1.03* 0.91* 0.81 0.7 0.61 0.48 −0.30** −0.50*** −0.57*** −0.67*** −0.76***
(2.86) (2.31) (2.09) (1.98) (1.85) (1.75) (1.61) (1.51) (1.42) (1.29) (−2.13) (−3.86) (−4.39) (−4.65) (−5.13)
(y.d)t-k(103) −0.05*** −0.04*** −0.04*** −0.04*** −0.04*** −0.03*** −0.03*** −0.03*** −0.03*** −0.03*** −0.02*** −0.02*** −0.02*** −0.02*** −0.01***
(−8.77) (−6.23) (−5.38) (−4.92) (−4.92) (−4.68) (−4.57) (−4.48) (−4.43) (−4.42) (−4.34) (−4.32) (−4.39) (−4.36) (−4.29)
const 4.68*** 4.73*** 4.75*** 4.78*** 4.80*** 4.88*** 4.94*** 5.00*** 5.05*** 5.12*** 5.45*** 5.52*** 5.54*** 5.58*** 5.62***
(12.7) (11.77) (11.23) (11.06) (11.04) (11.44) (11.73) (12.23) (12.62) (13.24) (15.07) (15.2) (15.23) (15.24) (15.21)
Pseudo-R2 0.4 0.42 0.45 0.46 0.49 0.49 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.47
Wald-Chi2(3) 90.63 61.27 51.52 45.47 49 44.94 43.54 41.31 39.94 38.97 35.56 35.35 38.27 39.02 40.94
Nb.obs. 2222 2207 2192 2177 2162 2147 2132 2117 2102 2087 1967 1922 1907 1877 1847
Social distancing measure
yt-1(103) 0.28*** 0.18*** 0.16*** 0.13*** 0.11*** 0.09*** 0.08*** 0.07*** 0.07*** 0.06*** 0.04*** 0.03*** 0.03*** 0.03*** 0.03***
(9.36) (5.02) (5.55) (6.34) (8.02) (8.02) (8.67) (9.21) (9.73) (10.31) (11.11) (10.17) (9.85) (9.33) (8.81)
dt-k 2.64*** 1.96*** 1.63*** 1.30*** 1.04** 0.83* 0.66 0.48 0.37 0.2 −0.5 −0.59 −0.60* −0.65** −0.71**
(9.33) (6.66) (5.19) (3.52) (2.5) (1.82) (1.39) (1.02) (0.79) (0.42) (−1.19) (−1.59) (−1.71) (−2.00) (−2.37)
(y.d)t-k(103) −0.27*** −0.17*** −0.15*** −0.13*** −0.11*** −0.09*** −0.08*** −0.07*** −0.06*** −0.06*** −0.03*** −0.03*** −0.03*** −0.02*** −0.02***
(−9.68) (−4.86) (−5.39) (−6.22) (−8.14) (−8.22) (−9.20) (−10.06) (−11.01) (−12.09) (−12.63) (−10.97) (−10.58) (−9.96) (−9.41)
const 3.36*** 3.83*** 3.96*** 4.15*** 4.29*** 4.48*** 4.60*** 4.74*** 4.83*** 4.95*** 5.46*** 5.55*** 5.58*** 5.63*** 5.69***
(6.94) (8.24) (8.64) (9.06) (9.33) (9.59) (9.94) (10.46) (10.8) (11.31) (14.36) (14.91) (15.03) (15.19) (15.37)
Pseudo-R2 0.35 0.5 0.6 0.64 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.65 0.6 0.57 0.57 0.55 0.54
Wald-Chi2(3) 129.85 76.29 72.84 78.43 114.29 121.15 161.59 177.6 213.47 249.52 433.01 383.05 355.91 357.05 346.1
Nb.obs. 2222 2207 2192 2177 2162 2147 2132 2117 2102 2087 1967 1922 1907 1877 1847
Movement restriction measure
yt-1(103) 0.28*** 0.18*** 0.16*** 0.13*** 0.12*** 0.10*** 0.08*** 0.07*** 0.07*** 0.06*** 0.04*** 0.03*** 0.03*** 0.03*** 0.03***
(8.86) (5.06) (5.59) (6.38) (8.09) (8.1) (8.84) (9.41) (10.14) (10.71) (10.69) (9.65) (9.37) (8.89) (8.41)
dt-k 2.58*** 1.87*** 1.51*** 1.21*** 0.92** 0.74* 0.53 0.38 0.23 0.09 −0.51 −0.58* −0.60* −0.64** −0.70**
(8.92) (6.72) (5.03) (3.38) (2.23) (1.65) (1.13) (0.82) (0.47) (0.18) (−1.30) (−1.70) (−1.83) (−2.14) (−2.53)
(y.d)t-k(103) −0.27*** −0.18*** −0.15*** −0.13*** −0.11*** −0.09*** −0.08*** −0.07*** −0.06*** −0.06*** −0.03*** −0.03*** −0.03*** −0.02*** −0.02***
(−9.12) (−4.89) (−5.42) (−6.25) (−8.20) (−8.30) (−9.38) (−10.28) (−11.53) (−12.62) (−11.52) (−10.11) (−9.81) (−9.30) (−8.85)
const 3.39*** 3.88*** 4.04*** 4.20*** 4.37*** 4.53*** 4.68*** 4.80*** 4.91*** 5.01*** 5.47*** 5.56*** 5.59*** 5.65*** 5.71***
(6.78) (8.46) (9.00) (9.31) (9.72) (9.91) (10.35) (10.82) (11.18) (11.66) (14.62) (15.1) (15.21) (15.35) (15.53)
Pseudo-R2 0.34 0.5 0.6 0.64 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.66 0.66 0.65 0.6 0.57 0.57 0.55 0.54
Wald-Chi2(3) 110.8 76.5 72.32 76.21 108.07 115.71 149.55 171.8 216.3 272.92 354.79 301.23 288.03 291.91 283.89
Nb.obs. 2222 2207 2192 2177 2162 2147 2132 2117 2102 2087 1967 1922 1907 1877 1847
Governance and socio-economic measures
yt-1(103) 0.02*** 0.02*** 0.02*** 0.02*** 0.02*** 0.02*** 0.02*** 0.02*** 0.02*** 0.02*** 0.02*** 0.02*** 0.02*** 0.02*** 0.02***
(4.64) (4.1) (3.73) (3.55) (3.42) (3.39) (3.37) (3.41) (3.45) (3.52) (3.98) (4.02) (4.08) (4.2) (4.31)
dt-k 0.87 0.92 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.91 0.9 0.84 0.76 0.66 0.04 −0.32 −0.37 −0.50* −0.66**
(1.48) (1.48) (1.5) (1.5) (1.5) (1.49) (1.51) (1.53) (1.5) (1.49) (0.18) (−1.44) (−1.62) (−1.95) (−2.19)
(y.d)t-k(103) −0.01** −0.01** −0.01** −0.01** −0.01** −0.01** −0.01** −0.01** −0.01** −0.01** −0.01*** −0.01*** −0.01*** −0.01*** −0.01***
(−2.39) (−2.15) (−2.04) (−2.01) (−2.00) (−2.02) (−2.05) (−2.11) (−2.15) (−2.21) (−2.73) (−2.73) (−2.81) (−2.93) (−2.94)
const 4.96*** 4.93*** 4.89*** 4.90*** 4.89*** 4.93*** 4.93*** 4.97*** 5.02*** 5.09*** 5.45*** 5.60*** 5.62*** 5.67*** 5.73***
(9.12) (8.79) (8.46) (8.46) (8.35) (8.67) (8.74) (9.22) (9.75) (10.51) (13.78) (14.5) (14.63) (14.85) (15.03)
Pseudo-R2 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.3 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.38 0.4 0.41 0.42 0.43
Wald-Chi2(3) 26.6 23.51 22.44 21.85 21.08 20.8 20.36 20.33 20.39 20.53 20.83 21.8 21.73 21.96 22.57
Nb.obs. 2222 2207 2192 2177 2162 2147 2132 2117 2102 2087 1967 1922 1907 1877 1847
Public health measure
yt-1(103) 0.21*** 0.18*** 0.16*** 0.13*** 0.11*** 0.09*** 0.08*** 0.07*** 0.07*** 0.06*** 0.03*** 0.03*** 0.03*** 0.03*** 0.02***
(7.97) (5.95) (6.45) (7.43) (9.64) (9.64) (10.68) (11.19) (11.62) (11.75) (9.25) (8.56) (8.36) (7.96) (7.62)
dt-k 2.28*** 1.89*** 1.57*** 1.18*** 0.93*** 0.66* 0.5 0.35 0.25 0.15 −0.29 −0.39 −0.41 −0.47* −0.54**
(7.11) (5.7) (5.22) (3.93) (2.8) (1.74) (1.23) (0.84) (0.59) (0.35) (−0.88) (−1.28) (−1.40) (−1.74) (−2.15)
(y.d)t-k(103) −0.20*** −0.17*** −0.15*** −0.13*** −0.11*** −0.09*** −0.08*** −0.07*** −0.06*** −0.06*** −0.03*** −0.03*** −0.02*** −0.02*** −0.02***
(−8.16) (−5.79) (−6.31) (−7.37) (−10.05) (−10.22) (−11.89) (−12.85) (−13.71) (−13.95) (−9.32) (−8.60) (−8.42) (−8.14) (−8.04)
const 3.65*** 3.83*** 3.96*** 4.19*** 4.33*** 4.56*** 4.68*** 4.80*** 4.88*** 4.96*** 5.40*** 5.51*** 5.55*** 5.62*** 5.68***
(7.07) (7.73) (8.33) (9.44) (10.21) (10.81) (11.13) (11.52) (11.8) (12.22) (14.01) (14.44) (14.54) (14.76) (15.02)
Pseudo-R2 0.34 0.5 0.6 0.65 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.66 0.66 0.65 0.58 0.56 0.55 0.53 0.52
Wald-Chi2(3) 77.26 53.51 53.26 64.28 119.68 131.79 230.89 339.57 581.5 778.72 247.19 228.41 221.62 210.65 200.25
Nb.obs. 2222 2207 2192 2177 2162 2147 2132 2117 2102 2087 1967 1922 1907 1877 1847

Notes: yt−1: the total number of confirmed cases the previous day; dt−k: dummy indicating the government measure is in place for k days. z-values are between parentheses: *p<0.10, **p<0.05, ***p<0.01.