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. 2021 Jul 29;12:4467. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-24487-w

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Fig. 2 — Integrated assessment models (IAMs) assess the cost of reducing emissions and the damages from climate change in a dynamic general equilibrium model that includes coupled interactions between the economy and the climate. They can be used normatively to determine optimal climate policy. They do this by using optimal control to determine a path of emissions trajectories that optimizes the net present value of social welfare. A Optimal climate policy in DICE-2016 involves gradual emissions reductions starting in 2050 while optimal climate policy in DICE-EMR involves immediate emissions reductions and full decarbonization by 2050. B Optimal climate policy in DICE-2016 results in 3.5 °C warming by 2100 while optimal climate policy in DICE-EMR results in 2.4 °C warming by 2100.