Fig. 5. A summary of the DICE-2016 and DICE-EMR integrated assessment models (IAMs).

Endogenous components (determined by the model) are in bold. Exogenous components (inputs to the model) are not bold. A is a summary of the DICE-2016 model. In this model, the economy affects the climate through emissions and climate only affects society through the damage function that reduces GDP. Our review of⁸—the review study that constructs the DICE-2016 damage function—concludes that mortality costs account for <5% of the damages in the damage function. B is a summary of the DICE-EMR model. DICE-EMR takes the rest of DICE-2016 as given and adds a fourth system: demographics. The climate affects the mortality rate through the mortality damage function, which is estimated by a systematic research synthesis of the scholarly literature. This directly reduces welfare due to the welfare cost of these excess deaths, and this effect is calibrated to estimates for value of a statistical life year.