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. 2021 Jul 30;11:15531. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-94719-y

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© The Author(s) 2021

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Importance of the timing and the coverage achieved with the vaccine rollout. Comparison of the projected reductions in the number of: (A,D) cumulative infections; (B,E) cumulative hospitalizations and (C,F) cumulative deaths over 1 year due to the use of vaccines with different efficacy profiles compared to base-case scenarios without vaccination. (A–C) compare vaccine rollouts which start on Dec. 1, 2020 (white boxes), Sept. 1, 2020 (yellow boxes) or March 1, 2021 (gray boxes) assuming 5000 vaccinated daily till 1,000,000 vaccinations are reached. (D–F) show the impact of rollouts starting on Dec. 1, 2020 and reaching different number of total vaccinations over 200 days. Vaccine 1 (10% VE_SUSC and 44.4% VE_SYMP) and Vaccine 2 (40% VE_SUSC and 16.7% VE_SYMP) result in 50% reduction in symptomatic disease (VE_DIS) while Vaccine 3 (10% VE_SUSC and 88.9% VE_SYMP) and Vaccine 4 (80% VE_SUSC and 50% VE_SYMP) result in 90% VE_DIS. Lines represent the mean value while boxplots represent the uncertainty generated by 100 calibrated simulations.