Table 2. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model Results Summarizing the Association of the COVID-19 Pandemic With Medication Prescribing in Ontario Nursing Homes.
| Medication | Prepandemic perioda | Pandemic periodb | Step interventionc | Ramp interventiond | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mean (SD) observed weekly proportion of users, % | Observed proportion of users in last week, %e | Mean (SD) observed weekly proportion of users, % | Observed proportion of users in last week, %f | Estimated proportion of users in last week, %f,g | Absolute difference in observed vs projected users in last week, %f,g | Parameter estimate, β (SE) | P value | Parameter estimate, β (SE) | P value | |
| Central nervous system | ||||||||||
| Antipsychotics | 25.20 (0.19) | 25.33 | 26.02 (0.52) | 26.87 | 25.35 | 1.52 | –0.004 (0.045) | .92 | 0.051 (0.010) | <.001 |
| Benzodiazepines | 9.99 (0.70) | 8.94 | 8.99 (0.11) | 9.07 | 8.43 | 0.64 | –0.069 (0.042) | .10 | 0.026 (0.003) | <.001 |
| Antidepressants | 49.59 (0.59) | 50.71 | 51.51 (0.72) | 52.52 | 51.10 | 1.43 | –0.030 (0.051) | .56 | 0.046 (0.013) | <.001 |
| Trazodone | 24.73 (0.23) | 25.03 | 25.60 (0.44) | 26.23 | 25.18 | 1.06 | 0.050 (0.049) | .31 | 0.033 (0.010) | <.001 |
| Anticonvulsants | 18.18 (0.67) | 19.26 | 19.67 (0.34) | 20.21 | 19.73 | 0.48 | 0.050 (0.030) | .10 | 0.014 (0.006) | .03 |
| Opioids | 20.10 (0.44) | 19.56 | 19.97 (0.34) | 20.47 | 19.40 | 1.06 | –0.050 (0.060) | .40 | 0.038 (0.007) | <.001 |
| Other | ||||||||||
| Antibiotics | 7.11 (0.32) | 6.96 | 6.56 (0.18) | 6.64 | 7.07 | –0.43 | –0.092 (0.127) | .47 | –0.011 (0.012) | .38 |
| ARBs | 10.08 (0.09) | 9.87 | 9.49 (0.14) | 9.44 | 9.64 | –0.20 | 0.027 (0.025) | .28 | –0.005 (0.011) | .63 |
| ACE inhibitors | 20.39 (0.36) | 20.42 | 20.41 (0.06) | 20.34 | 20.51 | –0.17 | –0.007 (0.032) | .83 | –0.002 (0.011) | .85 |
Abbreviations: ACE, angiotensin-converting enzyme; ARBs, angiotensin receptor blockers.
First observation week of period was March 5 to 11, 2017; last observation week of period, February 23 to 29, 2020.
First observation week of period was March 1 to 7, 2020; last observation week of period, September 20 to 26, 2020.
The step intervention tests for an initial immediate level change in weekly medication use after the onset of the pandemic.
The ramp intervention tests for a change in the slope of weekly medication use in the pandemic period vs the prepandemic period.
Observation week was February 23 to 29, 2020.
Observation week was September 20 to 26, 2020.
The final ARIMA model for each medication class was applied to only observation weeks from the prepandemic period to estimate use in the hypothetical absence of a pandemic.