Table 1.
Unadjusted and adjusted marginal average effect estimates of punitive laws on HIV service outcomes
| Outcome variable | Set of explanatory variables | Unadjusted marginal average effect in percentages (95% CI)* | P | Adjusted marginal average effect in percentages (95% CI)* | P |
| Percentage of all people living with HIV who know their status | Same-sex non-criminalisation | 11.3 (4.2 to 18.3) | 0.002 | 6.9 (−0.3 to 14.2) | 0.06 |
| Log of 2014 HIV prevalence | 1.7 (0.1 to 3.4) | 0.04 | 2.9 (1.5 to 4.4) | <0.001 | |
| Log of health expenditure per capita | 4.8 (3.0 to 6.6) | <0.001 | 5.6 (3.3 to 8.0) | <0.001 | |
| Sex work non-criminalisation | 10.2 (−0.2 to 20.7) | 0.06 | 7.1 (−2.3 to 16.5) | 0.14 | |
| Log of 2014 HIV prevalence | 1.7 (0.1 to 3.4) | 0.04 | 2.7 (1.0 to 4.4) | 0.002 | |
| Log of health expenditure per capita | 4.8 (3.0 to 6.6) | <0.001 | 6.2 (4.1 to 8.3) | <0.001 | |
| Drug use non-criminalisation | 14.2 (3.7 to 24.7) | 0.008 | −8.2 (−23.2 to 6.8) | 0.29 | |
| Log of 2014 HIV prevalence | 1.7 (0.1 to 3.4) | 0.04 | 3.0 (1.3 to 4.7) | 0.001 | |
| Log of health expenditure per capita | 4.8 (3.0 to 6.6) | <0.001 | 7.0 (4.8 to 9.2) | <0.001 | |
| Criminalisation composite | 8.0 (3.4 to 12.6) | 0.001 | 3.2 (−1.6 to 7.9) | 0.19 | |
| Log of 2014 HIV prevalence | 1.7 (0.1 to 3.4) | 0.04 | 2.5 (1.0 to 4.0) | 0.001 | |
| Log of health expenditure per capita | 4.8 (3.0 to 6.6) | <0.001 | 5.8 (3.4 to 8.1) | <0.001 | |
| Discrimination protection | 9.7 (5.8 to 13.5) | <0.001 | 11.5 (3.6 to 19.4) | 0.004 | |
| Log of 2014 HIV prevalence | 1.7 (0.1 to 3.4) | 0.04 | 2.9 (1.4 to 4.5) | <0.001 | |
| Log of health expenditure per capita | 4.8 (3.0 to 6.6) | <0.001 | 5.5 (3.3 to 7.8) | 0.001 | |
| Human rights institutions | 3.0 (−0.3 to 6.3) | 0.08 | 2.0 (−1.1 to 5.1) | 0.21 | |
| Log of 2014 HIV prevalence | 1.7 (0.1 to 3.4) | 0.04 | 3.5 (1.7 to 5.3) | <0.001 | |
| Log of health expenditure per capita | 4.8 (3.0 to 6.6) | <0.001 | 6.6 (4.5 to 8.8) | <0.001 | |
| GBV laws/policies | 15.9 (8.7 to 23.0) | 0.001 | 11.2 (5.4 to 18.2) | <0.001 | |
| Log of 2014 HIV prevalence | 1.7 (0.1 to 3.4) | 0.04 | 3.7 (2.1 to 5.4) | <0.001 | |
| Log of health expenditure per capita | 4.8 (3.0 to 6.6) | <0.001 | 5.9 (4.0 to 7.9) | <0.001 | |
| Percentage of all people living with HIV with suppressed viral load | Same-sex non-criminalisation | 8.1 (0.05 to 0.16) | 0.04 | 2.5 (−4.6 to 9.7) | 0.49 |
| Log of 2014 HIV prevalence | 1.0 (−0.7 to 2.8) | 0.24 | 2.0 (0.5 to 3.6) | 0.01 | |
| Log of health expenditure per capita | 6.0 (4.0 to 8.0) | <0.001 | 7.1 (4.7 to 9.5) | <0.001 | |
| Sex work non-criminalisation | 5.9 (−4.5 to 16.4) | 0.27 | 1.6 (−6.9 to 10.1) | 0.72 | |
| Log of 2014 HIV prevalence | 1.0 (−0.7 to 2.8) | 0.24 | 2.1 (0.4 to 3.9) | 0.02 | |
| Log of health expenditure per capita | 6.0 (4.0 to 8.0) | <0.001 | 7.1 (4.8 to 9.5) | <0.001 | |
| Drug use non-criminalisation | 14.5 (2.7 to 26.3) | 0.02 | −12.2 (−28.8 to 4.3) | 0.15 | |
| Log of 2014 HIV prevalence | 1.0 (−0.7 to 2.8) | 0.24 | 2.0 (0.2 to 3.8) | 0.03 | |
| Log of health expenditure per capita | 6.0 (4.0 to 8.0) | <0.001 | 8.1 (5.6 to 10.5) | <0.001 | |
| Criminalisation composite | 6.1 (1.4 to 10.8) | 0.01 | 0.03 −4.2 to 4.3) | 0.99 | |
| Log of 2014 HIV prevalence | 1.0 (−0.7 to 2.8) | 0.24 | 1.3 (−0.3 to 2.9) | 0.12 | |
| Log of health expenditure per capita | 6.0 (4.0 to 8.0) | <0.001 | 7.1 (4.7 to 9.5) | <0.001 | |
| Discrimination protection | 10.7 (6.9 to 14.4) | <0.001 | 11.7 (4.5 to 19.0) | 0.002 | |
| Log of 2014 HIV prevalence | 1.0 (−0.7 to 2.8) | 0.24 | 2.5 (0.7 to 4.3) | 0.005 | |
| Log of health expenditure per capita | 6.0 (4.0 to 8.0) | <0.001 | 6.3 (3.9 to 8.6) | <0.001 | |
| Human rights institutions | 3.3 (−0.2 to 6.7) | 0.06 | 1.8 (−1.1 to 4.8) | 0.22 | |
| Log of 2014 HIV prevalence | 1.0 (−0.7 to 2.8) | 0.24 | 3.1 (1.3 to 5.0) | 0.001 | |
| Log of health expenditure per capita | 6.0 (4.0 to 8.0) | <0.001 | 7.6 (5.2 to 9.9) | <0.001 | |
| GBV laws/policies | 16.2 (9.8 to 22.6) | <0.001 | 12.1 (5.1 to 19.0) | 0.001 | |
| Log of 2014 HIV prevalence | 1.0 (−0.7 to 2.8) | 0.24 | 3.3 (1.6 to 4.9) | <0.001 | |
| Log of health expenditure per capita | 6.0 (4.0 to 8.0) | <0.001 | 7.1 (5.1 to 9.1) | <0.001 |
*Estimates and inferences from fractional logistic regression models with robust SEs. The adjusted model includes the policy variable, prevalence and health expenditure modelled together.
GBV, gender-based violence.