Table 3.
Forecast accuracy measures for the single and hybrid models (patients hospitalized with mild symptoms)
| Models | MAE | MAPE | MASE | RMSE | ACF1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARIMA | 116.2616 | 2.6125 | 0.0631 | 204.8225 | − 0.0064 |
| ETS | 121.7029 | 4.3186 | 0.066 | 219.6733 | 0.0787 |
| NNAR | 111.0185 | 1.9759 | 0.0602 | 195.4126 | − 0.051 |
| TBATS | 115.428 | 2.8267 | 0.0626 | 204.2566 | 0.1902 |
| A–E | 115.0882 | 3.4033 | 0.0624 | 207.1205 | 0.0234 |
| A–N | 105.4098 | 2.1634 | 0.0572 | 184.3577 | − 0.0706 |
| A–T | 113.5426 | 2.6625 | 0.0616 | 200.8143 | 0.0803 |
| E–N | 107.3794 | 2.1219 | 0.0583 | 191.0452 | − 0.037 |
| E–T | 114.7241 | 3.4622 | 0.0622 | 204.5928 | 0.0886 |
| N–T | 104.7705 | 2.0966 | 0.0568 | 183.9314 | 0.0228 |
| A–E–N | 108.655 | 2.1419 | 0.059 | 193.672 | − 0.0355 |
| A–E–T | 113.0137 | 3.1372 | 0.0613 | 202.3212 | 0.0553 |
| A–N–T | 106.6527 | 2.1255 | 0.0579 | 189.0073 | 0.0579 |
| E–N–T | 108.3242 | 2.0805 | 0.0588 | 192.7942 | 0.0146 |
| A–E–N–T | 108.8197 | 2.1105 | 0.059 | 194.1662 | 0.006 |
Notes: A ARIMA, E ETS, N NNAR, T TBATS. Hybrid models were combined using equal weights