Table 1.
Global urban population facing water scarcity from 2016 to 2050 (million persons) including the 10 countries with the largest increases.
| 2016 | 2050 | Change between 2016 and 2050 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peren. | Seas. | Total | Peren. | Seas. | Total | Peren. | Seas. | Total | |
| Asia | 268.0 | 340.8 | 608.8 | 621.0 (374.3–711.4) | 722.2 (495.0–968.0) | 1343.2 (1090.2–1511.8) | 131.7% (39.7%–165.4%) | 111.9% (45.3%–184.1%) | 120.6% (79.1%–148.3%) |
| India | 98.0 | 124.1 | 222.1 | 255.1 (133.7–312.9) | 295.3 (164.9–355.0) | 550.4 (375.5–644.1) | 160.4% (36.4%–219.4%) | 137.9% (32.8%–186.0%) | 147.8% (69.0%–190.0%) |
| China | 72.1 | 86.9 | 158.9 | 128.7 (58.6–140.1) | 112.2 (69.9–225.9) | 241.0 (187.9–315.5) | 78.7% (−18.7%–94.5%) | 29.2% (−19.6%–160.1%) | 51.6% (18.2%–98.6%) |
| Pakistan | 25.7 | 14.2 | 39.9 | 70.8 (45.6–75.8) | 26.7 (11.7–45.0) | 97.5 (72.4–106.0) | 175.9% (77.6%–195.2%) | 87.4% (−18.1%–216.1%) | 144.3% (81.5%–165.6%) |
| Indonesia | 0.0 | 29.0 | 29.0 | 9.3 (0.0–38.9) | 61.4 (28.0–100.7) | 70.7 (30.2–107.9) | 111.7% (−3.5%–247.5%) | 143.7% (4.1%–272.3%) | |
| Philippines | 0.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 0.0 (0.0–4.1) | 39.6 (5.5–51.5) | 39.6 (5.5–51.5) | 1164.3% (74.2%–1543.8%) | 1164.3% (74.2%–1543.8%) | |
| Africa | 13.8 | 67.1 | 80.9 | 73.2 (33.3–115.1) | 238.0 (133.3–338.9) | 311.2 (210.3–372.2) | 429.5% (140.5%–732.7%) | 254.8% (98.7%–405.4%) | 284.7% (159.9%–360.1%) |
| Nigeria | 0.6 | 17.2 | 17.8 | 16.4 (0.0–30.5) | 50.6 (22.2–76.9) | 67.0 (40.4–85.1) | 2741.1% (−100.0%–5196.9%) | 194.2% (28.8%–346.8%) | 276.7% (127.3%–378.6%) |
| Egypt | 1.7 | 0.0 | 1.7 | 3.8 (3.3–4.2) | 51.8 (0.0–57.9) | 55.6 (3.6–61.6) | 123.1% (91.1%–145.4%) | 3154.9% (111.5%–3506.3%) | |
| North America | 45.7 | 62.8 | 108.5 | 89.9 (40.9–113.0) | 103.6 (70.2–147.9) | 193.5 (147.3–226.4) | 97.0% (−10.4%–147.6%) | 64.9% (11.7%–135.4%) | 78.4% (35.8%–108.7%) |
| United States | 24.0 | 26.9 | 50.9 | 41.8 (25.7–60.9) | 50.7 (29.5–91.2) | 92.6 (62.8–131.5) | 74.0% (7.1%–153.5%) | 88.6% (9.8%–239.0%) | 81.7% (23.3%–158.2%) |
| Mexico | 21.6 | 28.7 | 50.3 | 48.1 (9.8–66.4) | 26.7 (15.4–58.7) | 74.8 (62.9–89.9) | 122.5% (−54.7%–207.2%) | –6.9% (−46.3%–104.3%) | 48.6% (25.0%–78.5%) |
| South America | 7.7 | 28.8 | 36.5 | 16.7 (8.7–41.8) | 65.8 (43.9–130.4) | 82.5 (52.7–160.9) | 116.4% (13.4%–441.9%) | 128.2% (52.4%–352.2%) | 125.7% (44.2%–340.4%) |
| Brazil | 0.1 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 1.6 (0.0–24.3) | 33.7 (11.4–89.4) | 35.3 (11.6–94.2) | 2416.0% (−100.0%–38585.7%) | 338.3% (48.9%–1063.3%) | 355.1% (49.8%–1116.0%) |
| Europe | 21.8 | 69.1 | 90.9 | 35.0 (14.4–42.6) | 79.3 (66.0–132.9) | 114.2 (84.5–162.2) | 60.7% (−34.0%–96.0%) | 14.7% (−4.5%–92.3%) | 25.7% (−7.0%–78.5%) |
| Oceania | 0.4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 (0.1–2.6) | 8.4 (2.6–14.8) | 9.0 (3.0–15.4) | 78.4% (−76.9%–608.1%) | 241.9% (7.7%–502.6%) | 220.4% (7.9%–444.1%) |
| World | 359.3 | 573.4 | 932.7 | 839.6 (475.6–905.3) | 1225.0 (902.3–1647.2) | 2064.6 (1692.7–2373.0) | 133.7% (32.4%–152.0%) | 113.6% (57.4%–187.2%) | 121.3% (81.5%–154.4%) |
For 2050 the average values of urban population using the ensemble mean of runoff from GCMs under four scenarios are listed outside parentheses while the range (min-max) of estimations using runoff from each GCM under four scenarios are provided within parentheses.