Table 4.
Horse race results for the change in sales per industry, 2009
Sources: Refinitiv Worldscope; IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and authors' estimations
| Variables | Manufacturing | Construction | Transportation | Wholesale | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL | AEs | EMs | ALL | AEs | EMs | ALL | AEs | EMs | ALL | AEs | EMs | |
| Combined effectsa | ||||||||||||
| Fiscal impulse (A) + (B) | 0.589*** | 0.984*** | − 1.955*** | 0.926** | 1.055** | 3.003* | 0.785 | 1.012 | − 1.014 | 1.361* | 0.179 | 0.695 |
| (2.950) | (3.838) | (− 3.770) | (2.063) | (1.974) | (1.659) | (1.164) | (1.338) | (− 0.534) | (1.871) | (0.200) | (0.254) | |
| Monetary impulse via working capital dependency (C) + (D) | 0.171 | 0.125 | − 0.160 | 0.926** | 1.055** | 3.003* | 0.785 | 1.012 | − 1.014 | 1.361* | 0.179 | 0.695 |
| (0.745) | (0.408) | (− 0.270) | (1.016) | (0.450) | (2.397) | (0.721) | (0.117) | (1.347) | (0.629) | (2.449) | (− 1.562) | |
| Monetary impulse via investment capital dependency (C) + (E) | 0.283 | 0.307 | − 0.154 | 0.926** | 1.055** | 3.003* | 0.785 | 1.012 | − 1.014 | 1.361* | 0.179 | 0.695 |
| (1.104) | (0.854) | (− 0.250) | (0.901) | (0.356) | (1.824) | (1.376) | (1.316) | (1.549) | (1.011) | (2.825) | (− 1.515) | |
| Regression resultsb | ||||||||||||
| Fiscal Impulsec (A) | 0.776* | 1.098** | − 2.088 | 0.437 | 1.344 | 6.862 | 0.257 | 0.176 | − 1.292 | 0.621 | − 0.646 | 5.645 |
| (1.752) | (2.074) | (− 1.211) | (0.328) | (0.947) | (1.151) | (0.285) | (0.184) | (− 0.370) | (0.564) | (− 0.498) | (1.079) | |
| Fiscal impulse * business cycle sensitivity (B) | − 1.659 | − 1.011 | 1.184 | 2.052 | − 1.213 | − 24.830 | 3.022 | 4.793 | 1.592 | 7.162 | 7.983 | − 51.622 |
| (− 0.514) | (− 0.261) | (0.091) | (0.334) | (− 0.165) | (− 0.883) | (0.729) | (1.001) | (0.102) | (0.728) | (0.689) | (− 1.212) | |
| Change in short term interest rated ( C) | 0.173 | 0.138 | − 0.162 | 1.783 | 0.793 | 12.587* | 1.436 | 1.445 | 5.066 | 1.146 | 4.606*** | − 3.882 |
| (0.753) | (0.447) | (− 0.275) | (0.796) | (0.274) | (1.947) | (1.380) | (1.308) | (1.544) | (1.355) | (3.038) | (− 1.559) | |
| Change in short term interest rate * working capital dependency (D) | − 0.418 | − 0.411 | − 0.125 | − 0.187 | 0.640 | − 9.390 | − 2.693 | − 4.253 | − 8.724 | − 1.987 | − 4.988*** | 3.270 |
| (− 1.585) | (− 1.333) | (− 0.250) | (− 0.101) | (0.265) | (− 1.402) | (− 1.103) | (− 1.126) | (− 1.411) | (− 1.530) | (− 2.698) | (1.023) | |
| Change in short term interest rate * investment capital dependency (E ) | 0.729 | 0.729 | 0.085 | − 0.014 | − 0.211 | 2.165 | 0.128 | − 0.082 | − 1.279 | − 0.600 | − 0.510 | − 0.904 |
| (1.399) | (1.161) | (0.088) | (− 0.030) | (− 0.350) | (1.223) | (0.056) | (− 0.028) | (− 0.407) | (− 0.989) | (− 0.776) | (− 0.558) | |
| Change in capital expenditures (percent of assets)d | 0.931*** | 1.132*** | 0.584*** | − 0.209 | 0.242 | − 0.597 | − 0.096 | 0.007 | − 0.372 | − 0.124 | 0.184 | − 0.733 |
| (6.752) | (5.780) | (3.494) | (− 0.553) | (0.409) | (− 1.258) | (− 0.529) | (0.035) | (− 0.912) | (− 0.277) | (0.495) | (− 1.050) | |
| Leverage: total debt in t−1 (log, thousand USD) | 0.708*** | 0.820*** | 0.669** | 0.915 | 0.852 | 1.193 | − 0.272 | 1.122 | − 1.907 | − 0.747 | − 0.220 | − 0.229 |
| (3.587) | (3.225) | (2.240) | (1.619) | (1.142) | (1.150) | (− 0.259) | (0.770) | (− 1.397) | (− 1.326) | (− 0.345) | (− 0.175) | |
| Size: total assets in t−1 (log, thousand USD) | − 1.222*** | − 1.377*** | − 0.905* | − 0.878 | − 1.005 | − 0.901 | − 0.448 | − 1.900 | 1.475 | 1.162 | 1.123 | − 2.410 |
| (− 4.937) | (− 4.434) | (− 1.945) | (− 1.328) | (− 1.258) | (− 0.658) | (− 0.346) | (− 1.044) | (0.903) | (1.538) | (1.446) | (− 1.265) | |
| Short− term debt in t−1 (percent of total debt) | − 0.051*** | − 0.034*** | − 0.048*** | − 0.008 | 0.014 | − 0.031 | − 0.088** | − 0.112** | − 0.047 | − 0.014 | − 0.005 | 0.044 |
| (− 5.882) | (− 3.072) | (− 3.538) | (− 0.326) | (0.490) | (− 0.837) | (− 2.171) | (− 2.241) | (− 0.687) | (− 0.515) | (− 0.145) | (0.676) | |
| Balance sheet liquidity: cash in t−1 (percent of assets) | − 0.048** | − 0.005 | − 0.097** | 0.032 | 0.106 | − 0.051 | − 0.265** | − 0.185 | − 0.474** | − 0.118 | − 0.117 | − 0.117 |
| (− 2.082) | (− 0.186) | (− 2.361) | (0.441) | (1.294) | (− 0.358) | (− 2.445) | (− 1.470) | (− 2.405) | (− 1.561) | (− 1.402) | (− 0.776) | |
| Observations | 8,337 | 4,963 | 3,374 | 821 | 439 | 382 | 422 | 298 | 124 | 868 | 628 | 240 |
| Wald (Chi-squared) test | 250.2*** | 185.1*** | 100.2*** | 22.1*** | 18.9*** | 21.7*** | 24.3*** | 16.8*** | 29.3*** | 24.9*** | 31.7*** | 35.7*** |
| Number of countries | 45 | 29 | 16 | 38 | 24 | 14 | 42 | 27 | 15 | 38 | 25 | 13 |
| Number of clusters | 1,887 | 1,211 | 676 | 110 | 65 | 45 | 153 | 100 | 53 | 279 | 187 | 92 |
Notes: Robust t-statistics in parentheses estimated using clustered standard errors at three-digit sector level. Significance at ***p < 0.01; **p < 0.05; *p < 0.10. ALL = all countries in the sample; AEs = advanced economies; EMs = emerging markets
aLinear combination of the impulse variable coefficients indicated
in each row and its interaction term with the respective sectoral variable evaluated at the median of the sectoral variable for the sample used in the regression. bAll estimations use the two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimators and include sector-level dummies (not reported in the table)
cFiscal impulse is defined as the negative of the change in structural public balances.
dFiscal impulse variable instrumented by unexpected government spending measured by IMF staff forecast errors (a negative value indicates a tighter fiscal position) and lagged values of the change in short-term interest rates and changes in the capital expenditure to asset ratio