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. 2021 Jul 6;10:e66590. doi: 10.7554/eLife.66590

Author response table 1. Effect of the inclusion of alternative reference populations within coherent mortality projections* on the coherently projected e0 values in 2065 for all-cause mortality and for non-lifestyle-attributable mortality.

All-cause mortality Non-lifestyle attributable mortality
Country Coh. Li-Lee: sensivity I Coh. Li-Lee: sensivity II Coh. Li-Lee: sensivity III Coh. Li-Lee: sensivity I Coh. Li-Lee: sensivity II Coh. Li-Lee: sensivity III
Men
Austria -0.20 -2.19 -0.76 -0.13 -0.77 -0.94
Belgium -0.17 -2.08 -0.61 -0.16 -0.81 -0.90
Czech Republic -0.24 -2.33 -0.71 -0.23 -0.76 -1.09
Denmark -0.17 -2.11 -0.60 -0.14 -0.71 -0.91
Finland -0.26 -2.13 -0.83 -0.22 -0.73 -1.00
France -0.21 -2.12 -0.75 -0.09 -0.78 -0.78
Germany -0.23 -2.09 -0.85 -0.22 -0.70 -0.95
Greece -0.27 -2.05 -0.80 -0.31 -0.82 -1.01
Hungary -0.19 -2.11 -0.65 -0.24 -0.83 -1.14
Ireland -0.17 -2.05 -0.80 -0.13 -0.82 -1.06
Italy -0.28 -1.86 -0.74 -0.18 -0.73 -0.92
Netherlands -0.16 -1.94 -0.67 -0.17 -0.76 -0.84
Norway -0.35 -1.83 -0.77 -0.31 -0.82 -1.03
Poland -0.22 -2.14 -0.67 -0.28 -0.79 -1.01
Slovenia -0.22 -2.03 -0.68 -0.15 -0.67 -1.00
Sweden -0.27 -1.79 -0.71 -0.29 -0.64 -0.89
Switzerland -0.23 -1.82 -0.67 -0.19 -0.69 -0.89
United Kingdom -0.26 -2.02 -0.70 -0.23 -0.80 -0.91
Average -0.23 -2.04 -0.72 -0.21 -0.76 -0.96
Women
Austria -0.19 -1.61 -0.56 -0.16 -0.73 -0.81
Belgium -0.21 -1.67 -0.72 -0.09 -0.76 -0.83
Czech Republic -0.24 -1.70 -0.64 -0.10 -0.68 -0.87
Denmark -0.19 -1.77 -0.66 -0.08 -0.53 -0.58
Finland -0.22 -1.69 -0.69 -0.14 -0.73 -0.86
France -0.23 -1.37 -0.54 -0.12 -0.71 -0.77
Germany -0.21 -1.55 -0.66 -0.16 -0.66 -0.82
Greece -0.27 -1.52 -0.72 -0.13 -0.69 -0.85
Hungary -0.18 -1.79 -0.65 -0.16 -0.79 -1.03
Ireland -0.28 -1.83 -0.77 -0.18 -0.81 -0.80
Italy -0.25 -1.59 -0.65 -0.16 -0.70 -0.85
Netherlands -0.25 -1.57 -0.68 -0.15 -0.66 -0.75
Norway -0.24 -1.67 -0.66 -0.09 -0.66 -0.85
Poland -0.18 -1.85 -0.69 -0.19 -0.71 -0.90
Slovenia -0.20 -1.62 -0.68 -0.14 -0.60 -0.85
Sweden -0.23 -1.56 -0.65 -0.14 -0.59 -0.74
Switzerland -0.19 -1.45 -0.59 -0.16 -0.66 -0.73
United Kingdom -0.23 -1.65 -0.68 -0.18 -0.56 -0.70
Average -0.22 -1.64 -0.66 -0.14 -0.68 -0.81

*original = using women in France, Spain and Italy as the reference population.

sensitivity 1 = using only women in France and Italy as the reference population.

sensitivity 2 = using women in Sweden, Norway and Switzerland as the reference population.

sensitivity 3 = using the average across the 18 countries included in the analysis as the reference population.

Note: the sensitivity analyses were all based on 1000 simulations, and we assumed non-stationarity for the remaining population-specific time trends k(t,i).