Table 1.
Conditions in the COVID-19 DICE simulation.
| Name | Initial level for GSTT | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Dynamic | ||
| Date | StartDate | Current date in simulation |
| StartDay | changing | Starting day selected for each patient |
| AdmitTo | changing | Admission location (1 = CC, 2 = L1) for each patient |
| DischDest | changing | Destination for each live discharge |
| Static | ||
| TimeHorizon | 100 | User-specified number of days to run simulation |
| StartDate | March 23, 2020 | User-specified calendar date for start of simulation |
| pEDtoL1 | 0.96∗ | Probability of transfer from ED to L |
| pL1toCC | 0.22∗ | Probability of transfer from L1 to CC |
| pDieCC | 0.3∗ | Fraction of patients who will die in CC |
| pSurvL1 | 0.85∗ | Fraction of patients who will die in L1 |
| pRRT | 0.3∗ | Fraction of patients in CC who require RRT |
| pHome | 0.15∗ | Cumulative proportion of discharges home |
| pHomewCare | 0.575∗ | Cumulative proportion of discharges home with care |
| pCommBed | 0.9575∗ | Cumulative proportion of discharges to community care bed |
| pCareHome | 0.9915∗ | Cumulative proportion of discharges to care home |
| BetaWillGoCC | 1 | Beta parameter for Weibull LOS in L1 before transfer to CC |
| LambdaWillGoCC | 0.69314718 | Lambda parameter for Weibull LOS in L1 before transfer to CC |
| BetaL1 | 1.4150375 | Beta parameter for Weibull LOS in L1 only |
| LambdaL1 | 0.31889391 | Lambda parameter for Weibull LOS in L1 only |
| BetaDieCC | 1 | Beta parameter for Weibull LOS before death in CC |
| LambdaDieCC | 0.11552453 | Lambda parameter for Weibull LOS before death in CC |
| BetaLiveCC | 1 | Beta parameter for Weibull LOS in CC before transfer to L1 |
| LambdaLiveCC | 0.1732868 | Lambda parameter for Weibull LOS in CC before transfer to L1 |
| BetaL1post | 0.77760758 | Beta parameter for Weibull LOS in L1 after transfer from CC |
| LambdaL1post | 0.05675878 | Lambda parameter for Weibull LOS in L1 after transfer from CC |
| Model control | ||
| NextEventTime | 0 | System, stores the time of the next event |
| NextEvent | 1 | System, stores the index number of the next event |
| Time | 0 | System, the current model time, in days |
| WillGoCC | Changing | Flag indicating whether patient will transfer from L1 to CC |
| WillDieCC | Changing | Flag indicating whether patient will die in CC |
| DieInL1 | Changing | Flag indicating whether patient will die in L1 |
Dynamic conditions may change value during the simulation; static conditions retain their initial value during an iteration, but these may change for scenarios and uncertainty analyses (random number conditions not listed).
CC indicates critical care; COVID-19, coronavirus disease 2019; DICE, discretely integrated condition event; ED, emergency department; GSTT, Guy’s and St Thomas’ Trust; L1, Level 1; LOS, length of stay.
∗
Source: GSTT provided the initial values for their location.