Table 4.

Effect of Unemployment Rate on Monthly SSDI Claims, Allowances and Denials by Administrative Level.

		Appellate
		Initial (1)		Reconsideration (2)		Hearing (3)	All Levels (4)
Claims	Coef.	4,455***	1,997***	1,736***
	SE	(978)		(386)		(314)
	Mean DV	1,35,945		38,038		37,414
	Pct. Change	3.3		5.3		4.6
	Elasticity	0.25		0.40		0.35
Allowances	Coef.	873*	259***	728***	1,860***
	SE	(458)		(22)		(101)	(555)
	Mean DV	46,627		5,217		21,906	73,751
	Pct. Change	1.9		5.0		3.3	2.5
	Elasticity	0.14		0.38		0.25	0.19
Denials	Coef.	3,582***	1,738***	733***	2,596***
	SE	(545)		(371)		(175)	(446)
	Mean DV	89,318		32,821		10,132	62,194
	Pct. Change	4.0		5.3		7.2	4.2
	Elasticity	0.31		0.40		0.55	0.32
Dismissals	Coef.					275***
	SE					(61)
	Mean DV					5,376
	Pct. Change					5.1
	Elasticity					0.39
Allowance Rate among Induced Claims (%)		19.6%***	12.9%***	41.9%***	41.8%***
			(6.1)		(1.9)	(2.9)	(3.8)
Claims as % of Induced Initial Denials		–	58.8%***†	48.5%***	–
					(4.0)	(2.1)

Notes:

^***Significant at the 1% level.

^**Significant at the 5% level.

^*Significant at the 10% level. Each group of figures presents regression estimates for a different outcome. In all models, N = 3825 state-month observations of the number of SSDI claims filed that resulted in a given outcome. Coef. refers to the coefficient on the number unemployed multiplied by the number of workers equivalent to one percent of the national labor force, and thus indicates the number of additional applications of a given outcome type induced by a one-point increase in the unemployment rate. Mean DV, the mean of each dependent variable, gives the average monthly claims of a given outcome type. Percent change is the Coef./Mean DV, or the percent change in the outcome.

^†Induced reconsideration claims computed as % of initial denials in non-prototype states