Table 5.

Effect of Unemployment Rate on Claims by Reason for Determination and Administrative Level.

		Initial Level				Appellate			Total % of Induced Initial Claims
		Effect of Unemp. Rate		% of Induced Initial Claims		Effect of Unemp. Rate		% of Induced Appell. Claims	Total % of Induced Initial Claims
Allowances
Meets or equals listings	Coef.	208		4.7%^***	191^***	8.2%^***	9.0%^***
	SE	(130)		(1.9%)		(20)		(0.9%)	(1.3%)
	Mean DV	21,231				4,893
	Pct. Change	1.0				3.9
	Elasticity	0.07				0.30
Medical-vocational	Coef.	666^**	14.9%^***	782^***	33.8%^***	32.5%^***
	Std. Err.	(330)		(4.2%)		(93)		(2.3%)	(2.8%)
	Mean DV	25,396				21,571
	Pct. Change	2.6				3.6
	Elasticity	0.20				0.28
Other Allowances	Coef.	–		–		13^***	0.6%^***	–
	Std. Err.	–		–		(4)		(0.2%)	–
	Mean DV	–		–		659
	Pct. Change	–		–		2.0
	Elasticity					0.15
Denials
Non-Medical	Coef.	242^***	5.4%^***	35^***	1.5%^***	6.2%^***
	Std. Err.	(84)		(0.8%)		(8)		(0.2%)	(0.9%)
	Mean DV	10,248				879
	Pct. Change	2.4				4.0
	Elasticity	0.18				0.30
Not Severe	Coef.	1,153^***	25.9%^***	164^***	7.1%^***	29.6%^***
	Std. Err.	(111)		(3.5%)		(17)		(0.8%)	(4.1%)
	Mean DV	16,152				1,967
	Pct. Change	7.1				8.3
	Elasticity	0.54				0.63
Short Duration	Coef.	−42		−0.9%		−9		−0.4%	−1.1%
	Std. Err.	(27)		(0.8%)		(7)		(0.3%)	(0.9%)
	Mean DV	5,424				310
	Pct. Change	−0.8				−2.8
	Elasticity	−0.06				−0.22
Capable of Past Work	Coef.	1,018^***	22.9%^***	320^***	13.8%^***	30.0%^***
	Std. Err.	(228)		(1.8%)		(65)		(0.7%)	(2.1%)
	Mean DV	25,063				4,979
	Pct. Change	4.1				6.4
	Elasticity	0.31				0.49
Capable of Other Work	Coef.	1,210^***	27.2%^***	546^***	23.6%^***	39.4%^***
	Std. Err.	(136)		(3.6%)		(140)		(2.5%)	(3.3%)
	Mean DV	32,430				8,586
	Pct. Change	3.7				6.4
	Elasticity	0.28				0.48
Dismissed	Coef.	–		–		275^***	11.9%^***	–
	Std. Err.	–		–		(61)		(1.4%)	–
	Mean DV	–		–		5,376
	Pct. Change	–		–		5.1
	Elasticity					0.4

Notes: Standard errors in parentheses.

^***

Significant at the 1% level.

^**

Significant at the 5% level.

Significant at the 10% level. Appellate refers to reconsideration and hearings claims combined. Each group of figures presents regression estimates for a different outcome. In all models, N = 3825 state-month observations of the number of SSDI claims filed that resulted in a given outcome. Coef. refers to the coefficient on the number unemployed multiplied by the number of workers equivalent to one percent of the national labor force, and thus indicates the number of additional applications of a give outcome type induced by a one-point increase in the unemployment rate. Mean DV, the mean of each dependent variable, gives the average monthly claims of a given outcome type. Percent change is the Coef./Mean DV, or the percent change in the outcome.