Table A5.

Effect of Unemployment Rate on Appellate Outcomes, by Reason for Initial Denial.

				Appellate Outcome among Initial Denials
		Initial Denials		No appeal		Allowed		Denied	Dismissed
A. Effect of Unemployment Rate
All Induced Denials	Coef.	3,582***	1,265***	986***	1,056***	274.6***
	SE	(545)		(176)		(108)		(226)	(61)
	Mean DV	89,318		40,096		27,124		16,722	5,376
	Pct. Change	4.0		3.2		3.6		6.3	5.1
By Reason for Initial Denial
Non-Medical Reason	Coef.	242***	136***	28		43***	34***
	Std. Err.	(84)		(44)		(18)		(16)	(12)
	Mean DV	10,248		7,469		1,238		1,041	499
	Pct. Change	2.4		1.8		2.3		4.2	6.9
Not Severe	Coef.	1,153***	578***	149***	304***	123***
	Std. Err.	(111)		(48)		(10)		(36)	(21)
	Mean DV	16,152		9,065		2,360		3,406	1,321
	Pct. Change	7.1		6.4		6.3		8.9	9.3
Short Duration	Coef.	−42		−45***	−1		5		−1
	Std. Err.	(27)		(8)		(10)		(11)	(2)
	Mean DV	5,424		2,405		1,992		778	249
	Pct. Change	−0.8		−1.9		−0.1		0.7	−0.3
Capable of Past Work	Coef.	1,018***	243***	391***	333***	52***
	Std. Err.	(228)		(72)		(51)		(100)	(18)
	Mean DV	25,063		9,455		9,539		4,777	1,292
	Pct. Change	4.1		2.6		4.1		7.0	4.0
Capable of Other Work	Coef.	1,210***	353***	420***	371***	67***
	Std. Err.	(136)		(36)		(32)		(70)	(24)
	Mean DV	32,430		11,702		11,994		6,719	2,016
	Pct. Change	3.7		3.0		3.5		5.5	3.3
B. Appellate Outcome as Percent of Induced Initial Denials
All Induced Denials		100.0		35.3***	27.5***	29.5***	7.7***
				(1.4)		(1.7)		(2.0)	(0.9)
By Reason for Initial Denial
Non-Medical Reason		100.0		56.3***	11.6***	17.9***	14.2***
				(7.2)		(4.3)		(1.7)	(1.9)
Not Severe		100.0		50.1***	12.9***	26.3***	10.6***
				(1.3)		(0.7)		(0.8)	(0.9)
Short Duration		100.0		–		–		–	–
Capable of Past Work		100.0		23.8***	38.4***	32.7***	5.1***
				(2.0)		(4.1)		(3.1)	(1.3)
Capable of Other Work		100.0		29.2***	34.7***	30.6***	5.5***
				(1.7)		(2.1)		(2.8)	(1.7)

Notes:

^***Significant at the 1% level.

^**Significant at the 5% level.

^*Significant at the 10% level. Each group of cells presents results from separate OLS estimations of Eq. (1). In all regressions, N = 3825 state-month observations of the number of SSDI claims filed that resulted in a given outcome. Coef. is the coefficient on the number unemployed multiplied by the number of workers equivalent to one percent of the national labor force, and thus indicates the number of additional applications of a give outcome type induced by a one-point increase in the unemployment rate. Mean DV, the mean of each dependent variable, gives the average monthly claims of a given outcome type. Percent change is the Coef./Mean DV, or the percent change in the outcome.