Skip to main content
. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2022 Jul 1.
Published in final edited form as: J Public Econ. 2021 Jun 8;199:104410. doi: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104410

Table A7.

Sensitivity of Total Benefit Costs to Discount and Mortality Rates (Billions of 2010$).

Discount Rate
1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%
Mortality 1.1% $65.304 $63.528 $61.830 $60.204 $58.648
 Rate 2.1% $61.830 $60.204 $58.648 $57.158 $55.730
3.1% $58.648 $57.158 $55.730 $54.361 $53.048
4.1% $55.730 $54.361 $53.048 $51.788 $50.580
5.1% $53.048 $51.788 $50.580 $49.419 $48.304

Notes: To calculate the implied increase in SSDI benefit obligations, we assume 416,454 new beneficiaries receive an average annual benefit of $13,546 until age 65. See text for details on how we obtain the average age of induced entrants. Our preferred estimate assumes a discount rate of 2% and an annual mortality rate of 3.1%.