| τinf |
Exposed-to-infectious: Length of time after exposure before an individual is infectious (i.e., has begun viral shedding) |
τinf ~ lognormal(4.5, 1.5) |
From Lauer et al. [37]; additional sources Du et al., Nishiura et al., and Pung et al. [38–40]. |
| τsym |
Infectious-to-symptomatic: Length of time after viral shedding has begun before an individual has symptoms |
τsym ~ lognormal(1.1, 0.9) |
Linton et al. [41] report the incubation period as 5.6 days (95% CI: 5.0–6.3 days). Using the period of exposure before becoming infectious, we infer the period of viral shedding before symptomatic. However, other studies have estimated longer periods, e.g. [42]. |
| τsev |
Symptomatic-to-severe: Length of time after symptoms have started that symptoms have become severe (i.e., requiring hospitalization) |
τsev ~ lognormal(6.6, 4.9) |
Linton et al. [41], Wang et al. [43] |
| τcri |
Severe-to-critical: Length of time after severe symptoms have started that symptoms have become critical (i.e., requiring ICU) |
τcri ~ lognormal(1.5, 2.0) |
Chen et al. [44], Wang et al. [43] |
| τdea |
Critical-to-death: Time from onset of critical symptoms to death |
τdea ~ lognormal(10.7, 4.8) |
Verity et al. [45] |
| τra |
Time from infectiousness onset to recovery for asymptomatic cases |
τra ~ lognormal(8.0, 2.0) |
Wölfel et al. [46] |
| τrm |
Time from symptom onset to recovery for mild cases |
τrm ~ lognormal(8.0, 2.0) |
Wölfel et al. [46] |
| τrs |
Time from onset of severe symptoms to recovery for severe cases |
τrs ~ lognormal(18.1, 6.3) |
Verity et al. [45] |
| τrc |
Time from onset of critical symptoms to recovery for critical cases |
τrc ~ lognormal(18.1, 6.3) |
Verity et al. [45] |
