Figure 3.

Cumulative resident cases requiring hospitalisation over 200 days after introduction of a single variant infection, by in-person activity status, use of NPIs, and baseline immunity

Figure shows average cumulative severe cases (requiring hospitalisation) per 1000 residents across 500 model simulations over 200 days for each scenario shown. In the best-case vaccine coverage scenario (B), 90% of residents are vaccinated. In the realistic scenario (A), vaccine coverage is lower and varies by age. NPIs are assumed to be 75% effective. Closures indicates continued cessation of in-person activities. Dormitories are rooms with at least three occupants, and cells are rooms with no more than two occupants, with the mixed prison composed of a mix of dormitories and cells. NPI=non-pharmaceutical intervention.