Figure 4.

Cumulative resident infections over 200 days with resumption of in-person activities and realistic vaccine coverage, by baseline immunity, use of NPIs, and frequency of infection importation

Figure shows average cumulative infections among residents across 500 model simulations over 200 days with no importations after day 1 (single importation) or 0·1% daily incidence among susceptible staff members (continued importations) for each scenario shown. Results showing the full set of scenarios are available in the appendix (p 37). Vaccine coverage varies by age. NPIs are assumed to be 75% effective. Dormitories are rooms with at least three occupants, and cells are rooms with no more than two occupants, with the mixed prison composed of a mix of dormitories and cells. NPI=non-pharmaceutical intervention.