Table 3.

Univariate and multivariable Cox regression model predicting hazard and adjusted hazard ratio of death among adults (≥ 15 years) with drug-susceptible TB and known vitality status, South Africa, 2009–2016 (n = 2,122,419).

		Total	Dead	Outcome 3c	Univariate Cox regressiond	Multivariable Cox regressiond
		n	n	%	HR (95%CI)	aHR (95%CI)
Age category	15–24 years	279,452	13,922	5.0	Reference	Reference
	25–34 years	644,837	55,122	8.5	1.73 (1.7–1.76)	1.42 (1.4–1.45)
	35–44 years	584,348	59,160	10.1	2.06 (2.02–2.09)	1.66 (1.63–1.69)
	45–54 years	354,032	41,649	11.8	2.41 (2.37–2.46)	2.11 (2.07–2.15)
	55–64 years	167,905	25,480	15.2	3.19 (3.13–3.26)	3.15 (3.09–3.22)
	65+ years	91,845	19,053	20.7	4.54 (4.44–4.64)	5.22 (5.1–5.33)
Sex	Male	1,172,409	121,491	10.4	Reference	Reference
	Female	950,010	92,895	9.8	0.94 (0.93–0.95)	0.95 (0.94–0.95)
HIV status	HIV-negative	607,943	37,971	6.2	Reference	Reference
	HIV unknown	308,414	40,629	13.2	2.14 (2.11–2.17)	2.17 (2.13–2.2)
	HIV-positive not on ART	419,369	59,755	14.2	2.32 (2.3–2.35)	2.66 (2.62–2.69)
	HIV-positive on ART	786,693	76,031	9.7	1.55 (1.53–1.57)	1.86 (1.83–1.88)
Previous TB treatment	New	1,839,987	176,943	9.6	Reference	Reference
	Retreatment	282,432	37,443	13.3	1.3 (1.29–1.32)	1.27 (1.26–1.29)
Site of disease	PTB	1,861,447	177,375	9.5	Reference	reference
	EPTB	260,972	37,011	14.2	1.43 (1.42–1.45)	1.41 (1.39–1.42)
Disseminated TBa,b	Not disseminated	1,913,826	183,896	9.6	Reference
	Disseminated	62,196	12,556	20.2	2.05 (2.02–2.09)
Year of TB treatment	2009	291,600	36,594	12.5	Reference	Reference
	2010	285,348	33,838	11.9	0.94 (0.93–0.96)	0.97 (0.96–0.99)
	2011	292,643	32,185	11.0	0.87 (0.86–0.88)	0.93 (0.92–0.95)
	2012	271,845	28,754	10.6	0.84 (0.83–0.85)	0.96 (0.94–0.97)
	2013	262,554	24,402	9.3	0.75 (0.74–0.76)	0.92 (0.91–0.94)
	2014	251,812	21,527	8.5	0.7 (0.69–0.71)	0.89 (0.88–0.91)
	2015	246,557	20,018	8.1	0.66 (0.64–0.67)	0.85 (0.84–0.87)
	2016	220,060	17,068	7.8	0.63 (0.61–0.64)	0.81 (0.8–0.83)

ART: antiretroviral therapy; EPTB: extrapulmonary TB; ICD10: International classification of disease 10; PTB: pulmonary TB; TB: tuberculosis.

p-values not shown, all p-values in multi variable model significant < 0.0001.

^aDisseminated TB not added to final model due to collinearity with site of TB disease.

^bDisseminated TB included 146,397 with unknown classification due to missing ICD10 codes.

^cOutcome 3: calculated as percentage of deaths among those with known outcomes where person time on treatment was documented.

^dCox regression models restricted to individuals with known final vitality status. Unknown outcomes (lost to follow up, moved or not evaluated) n = 409,114 excluded.