Table 3.
Post-test probability of SARS-CoV-2: with 3% pre-test probability
| Post-test probability of SARS-CoV-2 (Ideal is 100% with positive test; 0% with negative test) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mfg-1 | Lab A | Lab B | Mfg-2 | Lab C | Lab D | |
| With positive test | 100% | 100% | 100% | 41% | 100% | 42% |
| Confidence intervals | 18.5% - 100% | 7.5% - 100% | 71.9% - 100% | 14.9% - 100% | 2.8% - 100% | 28.5% - 59% |
| With negative test | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Confidence intervals | 0% - 0.4% | 0.5% - 1.7% | 0.3% - 1.2% | 0% - 0.4% | 0% - 3.2% | 0% - 0.1% |
| Number of true results in every ten tests reviewed (ideal is ten of ten) | ||||||
| Positive test | 10 | 10 | 10 | 4.1 | 10 | 4.2 |
| Confidence intervals | 1.8-10.0 | 0.8-10.0 | 7.2-10.0 | 1.5-10.0 | 0.3-10.0 | 2.9-5.9 |
| Negative test | 10.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| Confidence intervals | 10.0-10.0 | 9.8-10.0 | 9.9-10.0 | 10.0-10.0 | 9.7-10.0 | 10.0-10.0 |
| One in × test results is/are true (ideal is one in one) | ||||||
| Positive test | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 2.4 |
| Confidence intervals | 1.0-5.4 | 1.0-13.3 | 1.0-1.4 | 1.0-6.7 | 1.0-35.4 | 1.7-3.5 |
| Negative test | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Confidence intervals | 1.0-1.0 | 1.0-1.0 | 1.0-1.0 | 1.0-1.0 | 1.0-1.0 | 1.0-1.0 |