Table 4.
Post-test probability of SARS-CoV-2: with 50% pre-test probability
| Post-test probability of SARS-CoV-2 (Ideal is 100% with positive test; 0% with negative test) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mfg-1 | Lab A | Lab B | Mfg-2 | Lab C | Lab D | |
| With positive test | 100% | 100% | 100% | 96% | 100% | 96% |
| Confidence intervals | 88% - 100% | 72% - 100% | 99% - 100% | 85% - 100% | 49% - 100% | 93% - 98% |
| With negative test | 0.00% | 22.10% | 17.50% | 2.20% | 0.00% | 0.50% |
| Confidence intervals | 0% - 12% | 14% - 36% | 8% - 28% | 0% - 13% | 0% - 52% | 0% - 3% |
| Number of true results in every ten tests reviewed (ideal is ten often) | ||||||
| Positive test | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9.6 | 10 | 9.6 |
| Confidence intervals | 8.8-10 | 7.2-10 | 9.9-10 | 8.5-10 | 4.8-10 | 9.3-9.8 |
| Negative test | 10 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 8.7 | 10 | 9.9 |
| Confidence intervals | 8.8-10 | 6.4-8.6 | 7.2-9.2 | 8.7-9.8 | 4.8-10 | 9.7-10 |
| One in × test results is/are true (ideal is one in one) | ||||||
| Positive test | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Confidence intervals | 1.0-1.1 | 1.0-1.4 | 1.0-1.0 | 1.0-1.2 | 1.0-2.1 | 1.0-1.1 |
| Negative test | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Confidence intervals | 1.0-1.1 | 1.2-1.6 | 1.1-1.4 | 1.0-1.1 | 1.0-2.1 | 1.0-1.0 |