. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2021 Aug 6.

Published in final edited form as: J Am Board Fam Med. 2021 Feb;34(Suppl):S127–S135. doi: 10.3122/jabfm.2021.S1.200464

Table 5.

Selected Clinical Prediction Rules for COVID-19 Prognosis

Study	Performance in Original Study	Performance in 5 US Sites
Lu et al., 2020⁹	Low risk: 0%	Low risk: 2/108 (1.8%)
	Moderate risk: 6%	Moderate risk: 24/359 (6.7%)
	High risk: 33%	High risk: 87/324 (26.9%)
Xie et al., 2020¹⁰	AUROCC (derivation) = 0.893	AUROCC = 0.7981
	AUROCC (test) = 0.980	Hosmer-Lemeshow P = .23
Yan et al., 2020¹¹	Low risk: 3/189 (1.6%)	Low risk: 10/243 (4.1%)
	High risk: 157/162 (96.9%)	High risk: 85/374 (22.7%)

AUROCC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

See appendix for details regarding calculation of risk scores.