Table 3.
Conditional probabilities of progressing to metastatic recurrence in the absence of other cause death in an interval given being alive and recurrence free at the beginning of interval by stage, hormone receptor (HR) status, grouped age and years at diagosis.
| Percent progressing to MR among women recurrence-free at the beginning of the interval | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HR positive |
HR negative |
||||||
| Stage I | Years from diag. | 15–59 | 60–74 | 75–84 | 15–59 | 60–74 | 75–84 |
| 1992–1999 | 0 to 5 | 3.4% | 3.7% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 12.5% |
| 5 to 10 | 3.3% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 8.3% | |
| 10 to 15 | 3.0% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.1% | |
| 2000–2013 | 0 to 5 | 2.3% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 10.3% |
| 5 to 10 | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 5.9% | |
| 10 to 15 | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.7% | |
| Stage II | |||||||
| 1992–1999 | 0 to 5 | 12.4% | 12.6% | 19.4% | 23.0% | 24.1% | 35.0% |
| 5 to 10 | 8.6% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 4.4% | 8.0% | 8.7% | |
| 10 to 15 | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | |
| 2000–2013 | 0 to 5 | 9.3% | 9.6% | 14.1% | 18.2% | 20.2% | 28.1% |
| 5 to 10 | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 5.7% | |
| 10 to 15 | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | |
| Stage III | |||||||
| 1992–1999 | 0 to 5 | 40.7% | 42.5% | 53.3% | 56.4% | 55.2% | 68.3% |
| 5 to 10 | 16.1% | 20.4% | 17.5% | 5.9% | 13.1% | 16.6% | |
| 10 to 15 | 8.9% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | |
| 2000–2013 | 0 to 5 | 32.1% | 34.5% | 42.3% | 47.8% | 48.5% | 60.6% |
| 5 to 10 | 13.2% | 16.8% | 16.3% | 2.6% | 6.4% | 12.2% | |
| 10 to 15 | 7.1% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.9% | |
Note: The results used the analytical deconvolution method and the log-logistic cure mixture model. Survival from recurrence used an adjustment of hazard ration r=1.35 compared to de novo distant-stage breast cancer.