Table 3.

Median cumulative excess breast cancer mortality^a by 2022, 2025, and 2030 due to the COVID-19 pandemic effect for selected scenarios across 3 models (range across 3 models)

Scenario	2022		2025		2030
Scenario 1: no COVID-19 impact, median cumulative no. of deaths (range across models)	122 675 (110 406-125 042)		250 633 (228 585-257 537)		473 903 (444 352-493 595)
	Excess deaths (range across models), No.	Increase (range across models), %	Excess deaths (range across models), No.	Increase (range across models), %	Excess deaths (range across models), No.	Increase (range across models), %
Scenario 2a: delayed screening	166	0.15	294	0.13	364	0.08
	(131-209)	(0.11-0.17)	(265-413)	(0.10-0.16)	(269-404)	(0.05-0.09)
Scenario 2b: skipped screening	545	0.49	1158	0.45	1631	0.33
	(156-810)	(0.13-0.65)	(1033-1382)	(0.45-0.55)	(1357-2191)	(0.31-0.46)
Scenario 2c: hybrid delayed and skipped screening	355	0.32	711	0.29	950	0.19
	(144-509)	(0.12-0.41)	(664-898)	(0.28-0.36)	(860-1297)	(0.19-0.27)
Scenario 3: delayed diagnosis	411	0.33	728	0.28	1314	0.27
	(134-830)	(0.11-0.75)	(233-1223)	(0.09-0.54)	(266-1325)	(0.06-0.30)
Scenario 4: reduced chemotherapy treatment	39	0.03	100	0.04	151	0.03
	(27–88)	(0.02-0.08)	(84–122)	(0.03-0.05)	(146–207)	(0.03-0.04)
Scenario 5a: disruptions in screening and diagnosis: best case scenario	623	0.50	997	0.39	1589	0.32
	(267-1100)	(0.22-1.00)	(656-1674)	(0.26-0.73)	(675-1868)	(0.14-0.42)
Scenario 5b: disruptions in screening and diagnosis: worst case scenario	1236	0.99	1904	0.74	2861	0.60
	(302-1479)	(0.25-1.34)	(1632-2412)	(0.65-1.06)	(2476-2966)	(0.52-0.64)
Scenario 5c: disruptions in screening and diagnosis	930	0.74	1450	0.56	2277	0.46
	(285-1289)	(0.23-1.17)	(1144-2043)	(0.46-0.89)	(1576-2365)	(0.33-0.53)
Scenario 6a: disruptions in screening and diagnosis and treatment: best case scenario	701	0.56	1167	0.45	1896	0.38
	(291-1170)	(0.24-1.06)	(744-1778)	(0.30-0.78)	(826-1990)	(0.17-0.45)
Scenario 6b: disruptions in screening and diagnosis and treatment: worst case scenario	1311	1.05	2067	0.80	2983	0.66
	(315-1549)	(0.26-1.40)	(1700-2516)	(0.68-1.10)	(2599-3255)	(0.55-0.67)
Scenario 6c: disruptions in screening and diagnosis and treatment	1006	0.80	1617	0.63	2487	0.52
	(303-1360)	(0.25-1.23)	(1222-2147)	(0.49-0.94)	(1713-2575)	(0.36-0.56)

^aThe excess mortality is expressed in terms of both the number of breast cancer deaths and percent increase compared with cumulative number of breast cancer deaths without pandemic effect. The excess number of deaths in a row for a particular scenario is calculated by subtracting the cumulative number of deaths without COVID-19 pandemic (scenario 1) as given in the first row from that obtained under that scenario. Similarly, the percent increase is calculated by dividing this difference by the cumulative number of deaths without COVID-19 pandemic.