Table 3. Suitable testing options ⁋ for effective control of a disease outbreak keeping contact rates at reported levels † ‡.
| Testing | Number infected (per 10,000 persons) | Peak trace and tests per day (per 10,000 persons) | Peak quarantine per day (per 10,000 persons) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Transmission rate (p) —> | 5% | 8% | 5% | 8% | 5% | 8% |
| S+33%U | 23 (20, 27) | 44 (32, 67) | 0 (0, 0) | 0 (0, 0) | 4 (3, 5) | 7 (5, 13) |
| S+33%T | 30 (25, 36) | 60 (42, 89) | 14 (9, 17) | 22 (14, 28) | 12 (9, 14) | 24 (18, 33) |
| S+50%T | 23 (21, 26) | 34 (29, 41) | 20 (12, 24) | 29 (19, 36) | 10 (9, 13) | 18 (14, 22) |
| S+5%U+50%T | 19 (17, 21) | 25 (22, 29) | 8 (7, 13) | 16 (10, 19) | 6 (5, 7) | 9 (8, 12) |
| S+10%U+50%T | 17 (16, 19) | 22 (20, 24) | 6 (5, 9) | 8 (7, 10) | 5 (4, 5) | 7 (6, 8) |
| S+20%U+50%T | 16 (15, 16) | 19 (18, 21) | 4 (3, 4) | 4 (4, 5) | 4 (3, 4) | 5 (4, 5) |
| S+25%U+50%T | 15 (15, 16) | 18 (17, 20) | 3 (2, 4) | 3 (3, 3) | 3 (3, 4) | 4 (4, 4) |
| S+33%U+50%T | 15 (14, 16) | 17 (16, 18) | 2 (2, 2) | 2 (2, 3) | 3 (3, 3) | 4 (3, 4) |
| S+5%U+50%dT | 30 (26, 34) | 45 (38, 55) | 26 (16, 32) | 46 (36, 64) | 15 (12, 18) | 26 (21, 34) |
| S+10%U+50%dT | 24 (22, 27) | 34 (29, 40) | 11 (9, 18) | 24 (15, 32) | 10 (8, 12) | 17 (14, 21) |
| S+20%U+50%dT | 19 (18, 21) | 25 (22, 28) | 4 (3, 8) | 10 (6, 10) | 6 (5, 7) | 9 (8, 11) |
| S+25%U+50%dT | 18 (17, 19) | 22 (20, 25) | 3 (3, 3) | 6 (4, 8) | 5 (5, 5) | 7 (6, 9) |
| S+33%U+50%dT | 17 (16, 17) | 19 (18, 22) | 2 (2, 2) | 3 (2, 6) | 4 (4, 4) | 6 (5, 7) |
S: symptomatic testing, U: Mass test, T: trace and test, dT: delayed trace and test.
†Reported value of contact rate is on average between 6 and 8 per person per day under remote instructions [35, 36]; Using our estimations, this would correspond to population size of about 31% and 42%. Results in the table correspond to this contact rate, presented as average (minimum, maximum).