Table 3.
Time-Dependent Accuracy Measures of the Multivariable Model Including Continuous EF at Different Predicted Risks Cut-Offs for LVD40 at 10-Year Follow-Up After the First Echocardiogram
| Predicted Risk Cut-Off∗ (%) | Actual Risk∗ (%) | % of Cohort With Risk Above Cut-Off | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | PPV (95% CI) | NPV (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derivation cohort: Amsterdam | ||||||
| 1.0 | 1.1 | 47.8 | 89.8 (70.6–100.0) | 47.5 (40.2–54.8) | 5.8 (1.9–9.8) | 99.2 (97.7–100.0) |
| 2.0 | 2.1 | 34.1 | 89.8 (70.6–100.0) | 63.0 (55.9–70.0) | 8.0 (2.6–13.5) | 99.4 (98.3–100.0) |
| 3.0 | 3.1 | 23.7 | 89.8 (70.6–100.0) | 76.2 (70.0–82.5) | 12.0 (4.0–20.0) | 99.5 (98.6–100.0) |
| 4.0 | 4.0 | 18.7 | 89.8 (70.6–100.0) | 81.8 (76.1–87.4) | 15.1 (5.2–25.0) | 99.6 (98.7–100.0) |
| 5.0 | 4.9 | 15.4 | 56.0 (23.4–88.6) | 85.1 (79.9–90.3) | 11.9 (1.9–22.0) | 98.2 (96.4–100.0) |
| Validation cohort: Nijmegen | ||||||
| 1.0 | 0.7 | 47.2 | 100.0 (100.0–100.0) | 59.0 (48.4–69.6) | 8.3 (1.7–15.0) | 100.0 (100.0–100.0) |
| 2.0 | 1.9 | 31.7 | 100.0 (100.0–100.0) | 71.1 (61.3–80.9) | 11.4 (2.3–20.5) | 100.0 (100.0–100.0) |
| 3.0 | 3.3 | 25.2 | 85.1 (57.8–100.0) | 77.1 (68.0–86.2) | 12.2 (1.6–22.8) | 99.3 (97.9–100.0) |
| 4.0 | 4.9 | 20.2 | 85.1 (57.8–100.0) | 81.9 (73.6–90.2) | 14.9 (2.0–27.9) | 99.3 (98.0–100.0) |
| 5.0 | 6.6 | 17.0 | 85.1 (57.8–100.0) | 88.0 (80.9–95.0) | 20.8 (3.0–38.7) | 99.4 (98.1–100.0) |
NPV = negative predictive value; PPV = positive predictive value; other abbreviations as in Table 2.
∗
Predicted and actual cumulative incidences of LVD40 at 10 years from the first echocardiogram.