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. 2021 Aug 9;12:4886. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-25168-4

Fig. 3. Rise of SARS-CoV-2 variants in New York City (NYC) in late 2020 and early 2021.

Fig. 3

a Daily frequency (points) and logistic regression trendline for B.1.1.7 (green line), B.1.526 (including B.1.526.2; purple line), B.1.526.1 (orange line), Other (all other sampled SARS-CoV-2 genomes; gray line). Also displayed is the logistic regression for B.1.526 samples with E484K mutation (red dotted line) and without (blue dotted line). b Rolling mean number of total daily COVID-19 cases in NYC through time. The color indicates the estimated rolling mean of prevalence out of all samples for B.1.1.7 (green), B.1.526.1 (orange), B.1.526 E484K (red), B.1.526 E484 (blue). c Muller plot depicts prevalence of lineages over time displaying rolling mean of daily frequency of lineages scaled by rolling mean of COVID-19 cases. Pseudocounts were added to plot after the emergence of each lineage until last appearance. Nested lineages indicates descendants in phylogeny. d Inferred exponential growth rates for SARS-CoV-2 variants in NYC from phylodynamic analysis. The horizontal line indicates the median growth rate estimate, the box denotes the interquartile range, and the whiskers refer to the highest and lowest observations in the posterior sample.