Figure 1. Multistate Model of Recurrence and Death in Patients With Oropharyngeal Cancer.

The multistate model is composed of 8 component models (C1-C8). Boxes correspond to 3 initial states (states 1, 2, and 6) and 3 outcome event states (states 3, 4, and 5). Brackets correspond to 2 logistic regression models related to initial state (C1 and C2). Arrows correspond to proportional hazards regression models for each of the following events: locoregional recurrence for patients who are not cured (C3: states 1 to >3), distant metastasis for patients who are not cured (C4: states 1 to >4), death without previous recurrence for patients without persistent disease (C5: states 1 or 2 to state 5), death among patients with persistent disease (C6: state 6 to state 5), death after locoregional recurrence (C7: state 3 to state 5), and death after distant metastasis (C8: state 4 to state 5).