Table 1.
Panel regressions of daily provincial Y-o-Y growth of expenditure on phase of the lockdown and easing-date province specific dummies. Column (2) controls for daily disease incidence at the province level. Columns (3) and (5) add provincial fixed effects and provincial and day fixed effects, respectively. Columns (4) and (6) add disease incidence controls. Standard errors are clustered at the province level. BBVA data to 21 June. Daily incidence of COVID-19 in each province obtained from the Spanish Health Ministry https://cnecovid.isciii.es/covid19/#documentaci%C3%B3n-y-datos.
| daily Y-o-Y expenditure growth by province |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| week before lockdown | 0.0844*** | 0.111*** | 0.0844*** | 0.102*** | ||
| (0.00837) | (0.0124) | (0.00839) | (0.00947) | |||
| lockdown | −0.598*** | −0.570*** | −0.598*** | −0.580*** | ||
| (0.0143) | (0.0190) | (0.0143) | (0.0154) | |||
| lockdown easing | ||||||
| Phase 0 | −0.478*** | −0.475*** | −0.471*** | −0.471*** | ||
| (0.0186) | (0.0183) | (0.0174) | (0.0174) | |||
| Phase 1 | −0.263*** | −0.262*** | −0.264*** | −0.262*** | 0.108*** | 0.109*** |
| (0.0164) | (0.0166) | (0.0159) | (0.0160) | (0.0181) | (0.0186) | |
| Phase 2 | −0.125*** | −0.125*** | −0.127*** | −0.127*** | 0.210*** | 0.211*** |
| (0.0148) | (0.0148) | (0.0143) | (0.0143) | (0.0285) | (0.0295) | |
| Phase 3 | −0.0756*** | −0.0763*** | −0.0815*** | −0.0801*** | 0.242*** | 0.245*** |
| (0.0248) | (0.0246) | (0.0207) | (0.0207) | (0.0394) | (0.0408) | |
| daily COVID incidence | −0.2802** | −0.183*** | −0.0411 | |||
| (0.1153) | (0.0494) | (0.0490) | ||||
| province fixed effects | N | N | Y | Y | Y | Y |
| day fixed effects | N | N | N | N | Y | Y |
| N | 8378 | 8378 | 8378 | 8378 | 8378 | 8378 |
| R2 | 0.431 | 0.434 | 0.526 | 0.527 | 0.753 | 0.753 |
***p < 0.01; **p < 0.05.