Table 2.
Pooled age-specific and age-standardized prevalence and number of PWD in LAC for the years 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2050.
| Pooled prevalence (CI 95%) | Number of PWD in LAC from our estimates (thousands) | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | Prince and Wimo (1) | Our estimates | 2020 | 2030 | 2050 |
| 60–69 | 0.02 | 0.02 (0.01–0.04) | 942 (471–1,884) | 1,239 (620–2,478) | 1,729 (864–3,457) |
| 70–79 | 0.07 | 0.09 (0.05–0.13) | 2,266 (1,259–3,273) | 3,399 (1,889–4,910) | 5,591 (3,106–8,076) |
| ≥80 | 0.21 | 0.29 (0.20–0.37) | 3,647 (2,515–4,653) | 5,299 (3,654–6,761) | 12,014 (8,286–15,329) |
| ≥60 | 0.08 | 0.08 (0.05–0.115) | 6,855 (4,245–9,811) | 9,938 (6,163–14,149) | 19,334 (12,256–26,862) |
ADI (2015) provided prevalence estimates in 5-year age groupings. In this study, the mean of two age groups were taken to represent the prevalence estimates in 10-year age groupings (e.g., the prevalence was 0.015 for people aged 60–64 and 0.026 for people aged 65–69, therefore the prevalence of people aged between 60–69 was determined to be the mean of the two estimates, 0.0205.). The ADI 2015 estimates were used as a comparison for our Bayesian estimation.
Pooled prevalence from ADI (2015) are provided here for comparison.