Table 3.
Ability of original and simplified PESI scores to predict mortality according to low- vs. high-risk classification
| 30-day mortality (N=414) | 31–90-day mortality* (N=354) | 91-day-1-year mortality* (N=316) | 1–5-year mortality* (N=266) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original PESI | Sensitivity, % (95% CI) | 89.1 (77.1–95.5) | 88.2 (71.6–96.2) | 74.4 (58.5–86.0) | 76.1 (64.2–85.1) |
| Specificity, % (95% CI) | 46.5 (41.3–51.8) | 49.7 (44.1–55.3) | 53.1 (47.0–59.1) | 64.1 (56.9–70.7) | |
| Positive predictive value, % (95% CI) | 20.3 (15.5–26.1) | 15.7 (11.0–21.8) | 20.0 (14.3–27.2) | 43.5 (34.8–52.7) | |
| Negative predictive value, % (95% CI) | 96.5 (92.3–98.6) | 97.5 (93.4–99.2) | 92.9 (87.4–96.3) | 88.0 (81.3–92.7) | |
| Positive likelihood ratio (95% CI) | 1.67 (1.46–1.90) | 1.75 (1.49–2.07) | 1.59 (1.28–1.97) | 2.12 (1.69–2.66) | |
| Negative likelihood ratio (95% CI) | 0.23 (0.11–0.50) | 0.24 (0.09–0.60) | 0.48 (0.29–0.81) | 0.37 (0.25–0.57) | |
| AUC (95% CI) | 0.68 (0.61–0.74) | 0.69 (0.61–0.77) | 0.64 (0.55–0.72) | 0.70 (0.63–0.77) | |
| Simplified PESI | Sensitivity, % (95% CI) | 100.0 (91.9–100.0) | 94.1 (78.9–99.0) | 93.0 (79.9–98.2) | 91.5 (81.9–96.5) |
| Specificity, % (95% CI) | 29.0 (24.4–34.0) | 31.6 (26.6–37.0) | 35.5 (29.9–41.6) | 45.1 (38.1–52.4) | |
| Positive predictive value, % (95% CI) | 17.7 (13.7–22.6) | 12.7 (9.0–17.7) | 18.,5 (13.7–24.5) | 37.8 (30.6–45.5) | |
| Negative predictive value, % (95% CI) | 100.0 (95.6–100.0) | 98.1 (92.5–99.7) | 97.0 (90.8–99.2) | 93.6 (86.1–97.4) | |
| Positive likelihood ratio (95% CI) | 1.41 (1.32–1.50) | 1.38 (1.23–1.54) | 1.44 (1.28–1.63) | 1.66 (1.44–1.93) | |
| Negative likelihood ratio (95% CI) | NA | 0.19 (0.05–0.72) | 0.20 (0.07–0.59) | 0.18 (0.09–0.41) | |
| AUC (95% CI) | 0.65 (0.58–0.71) | 0.63 (0.54–0.71) | 0.64 (0.57–0.72) | 0.68 (0.62–0.75) |
*
Of 414 patients, five without follow-up data after 30 days, four without follow-up data after 90 days, and seven without follow-up data after one year were only included in mortality analysis of the periods with available follow-up data.
N - number of patients with available follow-up information; AUC - area under the curve; CI - confidence interval; PESI - pulmonary embolism severity index