Table 2. Infections averted in the general population with 5-day testing and one-time testing of students compared to a policy of no routine asymptomatic testing (symptom-based surveillance and contact tracing only).
| 5-day testing compared to no routine testing | One-time testing three weeks after student arrival compared to no routine testing | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scenario | Without students | With students | Infections averted | % averted in the general pop’n | Critical care adm’n averted | COVID-19 deaths averted | Infections averted | % averted in the general pop’n | Critical care adm’n averted | COVID-19 deaths averted |
| 31% asymptomatic in students | ||||||||||
| Base case physical distancing (40% reduction in contacts immediately) | 3,515 | 7,551 | 1,685 | 68% | 19.3 | 15.0 | 102 | 76% | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Two weeks of 2.0x activity among students, followed by 40% reduction in contacts | 3,515 | 11,169 | 2,873 | 64% | 31.3 | 24.3 | 290 | 66% | 3.2 | 2.5 |
| Low level of physical distancing (24% reduction in contacts immediately) | 3,515 | 14,263 | 5,451 | 57% | 52.5 | 40.8 | 186 | 63% | 2.0 | 1.5 |
| Two weeks of 2.0x activity among students, followed by 40% reduction in contacts; 50% of general population engaged in high-intensity physical distancing | 649 | 8,018 | 4,266 | 63% | 45.6 | 35.4 | 343 | 65% | 3.8 | 2.9 |
| 50% asymptomatic in students | ||||||||||
| Base case physical distancing (40% reduction in contacts immediately) | 3,515 | 7,632 | 1,768 | 67% | 20.2 | 15.7 | 51 | 69% | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Two weeks of 2.0x activity among students, followed by 40% reduction in contacts | 3,515 | 11,076 | 2,789 | 62% | 29.6 | 23.0 | 329 | 66% | 3.7 | 2.9 |
| 80% asymptomatic in students | ||||||||||
| Base case physical distancing (40% reduction in contacts immediately) | 3,515 | 7,794 | 1,934 | 67% | 22.0 | 17.1 | 69 | 71% | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Two weeks of 2.0x activity among students, followed by 40% reduction in contacts | 3,515 | 11,514 | 3,238 | 64% | 35.0 | 27.2 | 419 | 68% | 4.9 | 3.8 |
Scenarios vary the proportion of infections in the student population that are asymptomatic and timing and level of students contact reductions. We calculate the expected number of critical care admissions averted and COVID-19 deaths averted to be 1.7% and 1.32% of general population infections averted which includes hospitalizations and deaths which may occur after December 31 to all individuals infected prior to December 31. The economic value of testing strategies is presented in Appendix Table 7 in S1 File.