Table 1. Model probabilities.

Parameter	Event	Total sample	Probability	Distribution	Source
No-mouthwash-arm
Patients with pneumonia
Pneumonia	39	931	0.04	Βeta	ASOS [1]
Critical care unit	21	39	0.54	Βeta	ASOS [1]
MV	-	-	0.25	Βeta	Expert Opinion
Died after MV	10	21	0.48	Βeta	ASOS [1]
Died (Critical care unit, No-MV)	17	42	0.40	Βeta	ASOS [1]
Died in general ward	3	75	0.04	Βeta	RECON [17]
Patients with no pneumonia
Critical care unit	85	887	0.10	Βeta	ASOS [1]
MV	-	-	0.24	Fixed	Expert Opinion
Died after MV	-	-	0.04	Fixed	Expert Opinion
Died after no MV in critical care unit	29	85	0.34	Βeta	ASOS [1]
Died in general ward	25	802	0.03	Βeta	ASOS [1]
Mouthwash arm
Patients with pneumonia
Pneumonia	27	931	0.03	Βeta	ASOS [1] but reduced value in no-mouthwash arm by 0.3 RRR
Critical care unit	15	39	0.38	Βeta	ASOS [1], Reduced value in no-mouthwash arm by 0.3 RRR
MV	-	-	0.18	Fixed	Expert opinion, Reduced value in no-mouthwash arm by 0.3 RRR
Died after MV	7	21	0.33	Βeta	ASOS [1], Reduced value in no-mouthwash arm by 0.3 RRR
Died after no MV in critical care unit	12	42	0.28	Βeta	ASOS [1], Reduced value in no-mouthwash arm by 0.3 RRR
Died in general ward	3	75	0.04	Βeta	RECON [17], Assumed to be the same as in control arm
Patients with no pneumonia
Critical care unit	85	887	0.10	Βeta	ASOS [1], Reduced value in no-mouthwash arm by 0.3 RRR
MV	-	-	0.24	Fixed	Expert opinion, assumed to be the same as in no-mouthwash-arm
Dead after MV	-	-	0.04	Fixed	Expert opinion, Assumed to be the same as in control arm
Dead (Critical care unit, No-MV)	29	85	0.34	Beta	ASOS [1], Assumed to be the same as in control arm
Dead in general ward	25	802	0.03	Βeta	ASOS [1] Assumed to be the same as in control arm

*MV = Mechanical ventilation.