Table 3.
Contribution of variables in each regression model for abnormal glucose metabolism.
| Model performance | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUC† | 0.74 | 0.77 | 0. 94 | 0.92 | |||||
| AUC p-value‡ | n/a | 0.57 (vs. Model 1) |
0.040 (vs. Model 1) 0.038 (vs. Model 2) |
0.047 (vs. Model 1) 0.045 (vs. Model 2) |
|||||
| R2 | 0.25 | 0.32 | 0.70 | 0.67 | |||||
| Variables in models | β (95%CI) | p-value | β (95%CI) | p-value | β (95%CI) | p-value | β (95%CI) | p-value | |
| Age at 5-year Follow-up, years | 0.21 (0.02, 0.46) | 0.05 | 0.22 (0.01, 0.49) | 0.07 | 0.25 (− 0.08, 0.72) | 0.2 | 0.32 (− 51.39, 4.31) | 0.16 | |
| Ethnicity | |||||||||
| Chinese | Reference | – | Reference | – | Reference | – | Reference | – | |
| Malay | 1.94 (− 0.39, 4.61) | 0.12 | 1.85 (− 0.59, 4.62) | 0.15 | 0.84 (− 2.82, 5.07) | 0.65 | 0.29 (− 0.98, 5.41) | 0.88 | |
| Indian | 0.68 (− 1.19, 2.62) | 0.47 | 0.54 (− 1.37, 2.05) | 0.58 | − 0.84 (− 4.09, 2.47) | 0.60 | − 1.69 (− 3.53, 4.47) | 0.32 | |
| BMI at 5-year Follow-up, kg/m2 | 0.14 (− 0.03, 0.33) | 0.11 | 0.20 (0.01, 0.41) | 0.05 | 0.05 (− 0.25, 0.39) | 0.74 | 0.23 (− 0.04, 0.85) | 0.21 | |
| Family history of T2D, yes | − 0.12 (− 1.8, 1.47) | 0.88 | − 0.27 (− 2.07, 1.42) | 0.76 | 1.81 (− 1.08, 5.26) | 0.25 | 2.33 (− 0.09, 0.63) | 0.15 | |
| Cumulative GDM episodes | 1.07 (− 0.38, 2.87) | 0.19 | 1.31 (− 0.23, 3.24) | 0.13 | 0.45 (− 1.93, 3.25) | 0.73 | 1.71 (− 0.57, 6.10) | 0.29 | |
| Baseline fasting glucose | n/a | 0.15 (− 1.77, 1.45) | 0.85 | − 0.32 (− 3.23, 2.27) | 0.81 | − 1.81 (− 5.41, 1.62) | 0.24 | ||
| Baseline 2 h OGTT glucose | n/a | 0.56 (− 0.18, 1.36) | 0.14 | 0.46 (− 0.50, 1.69) | 0.38 | 0.84 (− 5.32, 0.97) | 0.19 | ||
| p-cresol sulfate | n/a | n/a | − 0.30 (− 0.71, 0.03) | 0.10 | − 0.31 (− 0.23, 2.40) | 0.12 | |||
| Linoleic acid | n/a | n/a | − 8.89 (− 18.7, − 1.68) | 0.04 | − 11.14 (− 0.77, 0.05) | 0.02 | |||
| Glycocholic acid | n/a | n/a | − 13.03 (− 34.35, 1.54) | 0.16 | − 9.19 (− 22.92, − 2.91) | 0.28 | |||
| LysoPC(16:1) | n/a | n/a | 1.75 (0.50, 3.53) | 0.02 | n/a | ||||
| LysoPC(20:3) | n/a | n/a | n/a | 1.69 (− 8.40, 4.93) | 0.03 | ||||
| (Intercept) | − 13.58 (− 27.2, − 3.02) | 0.03 | − 13.65 (− 41.15, 7.54) | 0.25 | − 18.65 (0.03, 0.98) | 0.18 | |||
AUC area under the curve, BMI body mass index, T2D type 2 diabetes, GDM gestational diabetes mellitus.
†All models were fitted with tenfold cross validation.
‡Z-test against Model 1.