Table 4.
Sensitivity results
| Sensitivity | Units | Value in base case | Value in sensitivity case | Average DLCOA (USD/t) | DLCOA range | Active suppliers | Number of existing ports | Average transport distance (km) | Fraction of full-sized plants |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | – | – | 392 | – | 52 | 15 | 4,406 | 67% | |
| New port CAPEX | million USD | 100 | 50 | 392 | 0.5 | 52 | 15 | 4,441 | 67% |
| 150 | 392 | 52 | 17 | 4,406 | 67% | ||||
| Berthing Feea | thousand USD/day | 150 | 75 | 391 | 1 | 52 | 16 | 4,444 | 67% |
| 225 | 392 | 52 | 14 | 4,389 | 67% | ||||
| Charter Feea | thousand USD/day | 97 | 48.5 | 383 | 17 | 53 | 15 | 4,636 | 69% |
| 145.5 | 400 | 55 | 15 | 4,207 | 70% | ||||
| Land availability | % available land | 3 | 1.5 | 401 | 11 | 60 | 18 | 5,057 | 61% |
| 4.5 | 390 | 51 | 14 | 4,199 | 79% | ||||
| Max. plant Capacityb | MMTPA | 10 | 7.5 | 402 | 16 | 67 | 18 | 4,848 | 78% |
| 12.5 | 386 | 44 | 13 | 4,399 | 60% | ||||
| 2050 demand | MMTPA | 464 | 242.5 | 371 | 39 | 25 | 5 | 3,886 | 52% |
| 727.5 | 410 | 78 | 20 | 5,346 | 71% | ||||
| Year | Year | 2050 | 2030 | 328 | 64c | 3 | 1 | 5,725 | 33% |
| 2040 | 347 | 9 | 3 | 4,896 | 50% |
a
The base value and sensitivity values shown for berthing fee and charter fee pertain to the largest ship size (the Panamax); costs for smaller ship sizes were scaled in the same proportion (i.e. ±50%).
b
The sensitivity range used for this case was ±25%, rather than ±50% because the model was not able to satisfy the demand constraints when the maximum plant capacity was reduced by 50%.
c
The sensitivity range here refers to the difference between the cheapest case (2030) and the base case (2050).