. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2021 Aug 13.

Published in final edited form as: Demography. 2021 Feb 1;58(1):345–378. doi: 10.1215/00703370-8937348

Table 4.

CPUMA fixed effects models using total and gender-specific opioid-overdose death rates to predict marital birth rates per 1,000 women, 2000-2016

	Marital Birth Rate per 1,000 Women
	1a	1b	2a	2b	3a	3b	4a	4b	5a	5b	6a	6b
Opioid-overdose death rates (per 100,000 pop.) in CPUMA (year y-2)
ODR	0.01	−0.03									−0.02	−0.05
	[0.13]	[0.13]									[0.13]	[0.13]
Female ODR			0.13	0.08			0.21	0.15
			[0.13]	[0.12]			[0.13]	[0.12]
Male ODR					−0.05	−0.06	−0.1	−0.11
					[0.09]	[0.09]	[0.10]	[0.09]
Fentanyl ODR									0.46	0.35
									0.46	0.35
Non-Fentanyl ODR									−0.06	−0.09
									[0.14]	[0.14]
Opioid prescription rates (grams per 100 pop.) (year y-3)
Prescribed morphine rate											0.06	0.05
											[0.04]	[0.04]
Sociodemographic characteristics of CPUMA (year y-3)
% with <HS		0.08		0.08		0.07		0.07		0.08		0.08
		[0.24]		[0.24]		[0.24]		[0.24]		[0.24]		[0.24]
% with HS		0.32		0.32		0.32		0.32		0.32		0.33
		[0.19]		[0.19]		[0.19]		[0.19]		[0.19]		[0.19]
% unemployed		1.06^***		1.06^***		1.06^***		1.06^***		1.06^***		1.04^***
		[0.26]		[0.26]		[0.26]		[0.26]		[0.26]		[0.26]
% Hispanic		−1.43^*		−1.42^*		−1.42^*		−1.41^*		−1.42^*		−1.45^*
		[0.64]		[0.64]		[0.64]		[0.64]		[0.64]		[0.64]
% Non-Hispanic black		−1.52^*		−1.53^*		−1.51^*		−1.51^*		−1.52^*		−1.53^*
		[0.66]		[0.66]		[0.66]		[0.66]		[0.66]		[0.66]
% foreign-born		−0.51		−0.51		−0.51		−0.51		−0.51		−0.52
		[0.30]		[0.30]		[0.30]		[0.30]		[0.30]		[0.30]
Average household income		−0.32^*		−0.32^*		−0.32^*		−0.32^*		−0.32^*		−0.32^*
		[0.16]		[0.16]		[0.16]		[0.16]		[0.16]		[0.16]
% public assistance		−0.75		−0.76		−0.75		−0.76		−0.74		−0.76
		[0.86]		[0.86]		[0.86]		[0.86]		[0.86]		[0.86]
Population per square mile		−0.60^*		−0.59^*		−0.61^*		−0.60^*		−0.59^*		−0.59^*
		[0.27]		[0.27]		[0.27]		[0.27]		[0.27]		[0.27]
Sex ratio		0.00		0.00		0.00		0.00		0.00		0.00
		[0.02]		[0.02]		[0.02]		[0.02]		[0.02]		[0.02]
CPUMA Fixed Effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Year Fixed Effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
State^*Year Fixed Effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Observations	14,980	14,980	14,980	14,980	14,980	14,980	14,980	14,980	14,980	14,980	14,980	14,980

Notes: Marital birth rates are restricted to women aged 20-34. Birth rates and opioid-overdose death rates were calculated using data from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS 2018). Local controls were obtained from the 1-year samples of the American Community Survey (Ruggles et al. 2018). Analyses were conducted at the CPUMA-level. Standard errors clustered by county.

p<0.05,

^**

p<0.01,

^***

p<0.001.

Standard errors in brackets.