Fig. 4.

Scaling between average continental warming and absolute variability changes estimated from CMIP-6 climate models and the NOAA 20th Century Reanalysis of historical observations for annual (A), boreal winter (“DJF,” B) and boreal summer (“JJA,” C) changes. Strong covariation is noted across climate models and forcing scenarios (SSP-126 shown in blue, SSP-585 in red). See SI Appendix, Fig. S8 for scaling between changes occurring over different 25-y periods within individual climate models.