Fig. 6.

Retrospective analysis of the model calibrated to statewide data from fall 2020. Under two alternative scenarios about the daily probability of sheltering in place (summer vs. pre-pandemic mobility level in gray and red, respectively), we calibrated the parameters for school operating capacity and face-mask adherence in schools to data from August 24 through December 31, 2020 (blue diamonds). The calibrated model’s correspondence to daily incidence of death statewide is shown in the top two panels, and values of the calibrated parameters are shown in the bottom panels.