Table 3.
Popular Clinical Multivariable Risk Prediction Models for Patients with Heart Failure
| Risk Model | Multivariate Predictors | Outcomes |
|---|---|---|
|
| ||
| Chronic HF | ||
| Seattle Heart Failure Model 19 (2006) | Age, Sex, LVEF, NYHA Class, Weight, SBP, Labs (Hgb, Lymphs, UA, Chol, Na), Wide QRS/LBBB, Meds (including GDMT, allopurinol, statins, diuretics), Devices (ICD/CRT/PPM) | 1, 2, and 5-year mortality |
| CHARM Risk Score 26 (2006) | Age, Sex, LVEF, NYHA Class, BMI, DM, AF, MR, MI, Prior HF hosp, HF duration, Current smoker, DBP, HR, Dependent edema, Pulmonary crackles, Dyspnea, Pulmonary edema, Cardiomegaly, ARB | All-cause mortality; CV death or HF hosp |
| CORONA Risk Score 27 (2009) | Age, Sex, LVEF, NYHA Class, BMI, DM, MI, CABG, AF, Claudication, HR, NT-proBNP, Cr, ApoA-1 | CV death, non-fatal MI, or stroke |
| GISSI-HF Model 28 (2013) | Age, Sex, LVEF, NYHA Class, BMI, DM, COPD, AS, SBP, Labs (eGFR, Hgb, UA, NT-proBNP, hs-CTnT) | All-cause mortality |
| MAGGIC Risk Score 23 (2013) | Age, Sex, LVEF, NYHA class, BMI, DM, COPD, Recent diagnosis, Smoking status, SBP, Cr, Meds (B-blockers, ACEi/ARB) | 1 and 3-year all-cause mortality |
| PARADIGM Risk Score 29 (2020) | Age, Sex, Race, LVEF, NYHA Class, BMI, DM, Region, HF duration, HF hosp, MI, Valve dz, BBB, PCI, PAD, SBP, Bili, AST, UA, Alb, K, Cl, Hgb, LDL, Trig, BUN, WBCs, NT-proBNP, B-blocker, ARNI | CV Death or HF Hosp; CV death; All-cause death |
| Hospitalized HF | ||
| EFFECT Model 138 (2003) | Age, COPD, Cirrhosis, Cancer, Dementia, Cerebrovascular dz, SBP, RR, Na, BUN, Hgb | 30-day and 1-year mortality |
| OPTIME-CHF Model 9 (2004) | Age, NYHA Class, SBP, BUN, Na Prior HF hosp, SBP, BUN, h/o PCI | 60-day mortality 60-day readmission |
| ADHERE CART Model 4 (2005) | SBP, BUN, Creatinine | In-hospital mortality |
| OPTIMIZE-HF Nomogram 38,39 (2008) | Age, LVEF, HF primary diagnosis, HR, SBP, Na, Cr Age, Weight, SBP, Na, Cr, Liver dz, Depression, Reactive airway dz | In-hospital mortality 60-day mortality or readmission |
| GWTG-HF Score 5 (2010) | Age, Race, COPD, SBP, HR, Na, BUN | In-hospital mortality |
| ESCAPE Risk Score 6 (2010) | Age, CPR/mechanical ventilation, Na, BNP, BUN, Diuretic, B-Blocker, 6MWT | 6-month mortality |
| Refractory HF Risk Score 59 (2011) | Age, DM, Stroke, Arrhythmia, Na, BNP, BUN, Betablocker, KCCQ Score | Unfavorable QOL or death at 6 months |
| PROTECT HF Post-discharge Model 40 (2014) | Age, SBP, Na, Cr, BUN, Albumin, Prior HF Hosp, Peripheral edema | 30/180-day mortality, All-cause Hosp, and/or CV Hosp |
| BIOSTAT-CHF Model 41 (2017) | Age, BUN, NT-proBNP, Hgb, B-blocker Age, prior HF hosp, edema, SBP, eGFR | All-cause mortality HF hosp |
| HFpEF | ||
| I-PRESERVE Score 46 (2011) | Age, LVEF, Ischemic etiology, Prior HF hosp, QOL, DM, MI, COPD/asthma, HR, eGFR, Neutrophils, NT-proBNP | All-cause mortality or CV hosp, all-cause mortality, HF hosp or mortality |
| ARIC Score 47 (2017) | Modified EFFECT score + Race, BMI, AF, HR, Hypoxia, Natriuretic peptides | 28-day and 1-year mortality |