Table 2. Number of incident cases and PPVs (95% CIs) for cancer and for IBD in the year following each studied abdominal symptom, considering each symptom regardless of other symptoms, or in pairwise combinations with the other examined symptoms*.
| Symptom cohort Pairwise symptom combinations (recorded in the same consultation or up to a year prior) |
Men | Women | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cancer | IBD | Cancer | IBD | |||||||||
| n | PPV (%) | (95% CI) | n | PPV (%) | (95% CI) | n | PPV (%) | (95% CI) | n | PPV (%) | (95% CI) | |
| Abdominal bloating/distension | 450 | 1.65 | (1.50, 1.80) | 296 | 1.09 | (0.96, 1.21) | 982 | 1.33 | (1.25, 1.42) | 733 | 1.00 | (0.92, 1.07) |
| Combined with the following: | ||||||||||||
| Abdominal pain | 110 | 2.53 | (2.06, 2.99) | 71 | 1.63 | (1.25, 2.01) | 207 | 1.68 | (1.46, 1.91) | 196 | 1.59 | (1.37, 1.82) |
| Change in bowel habit | 10 | 2.21 | (0.85, 3.56) | 7 | 1.55 | (0.41, 2.68) | 24 | 2.49 | (1.50, 3.47) | 14 | 1.45 | (0.70, 2.21) |
| Dyspepsia | 271 | 1.45 | (1.27, 1.62) | 186 | 0.99 | (0.85, 1.13) | 547 | 1.05 | (0.97, 1.14) | 485 | 0.93 | (0.85, 1.02) |
| Dysphagia | 9 | 3.91 | (1.41, 6.42) | <5 | <2.17 | 6 | 1.13 | (0.23, 2.04) | 8 | 1.51 | (0.47, 2.55) | |
| Rectal bleeding | 16 | 2.43 | (1.25, 3.60) | 20 | 3.03 | (1.73, 4.34) | 21 | 1.64 | (0.94, 2.33) | 33 | 2.57 | (1.71, 3.44) |
| Abdominal pain | 5,841 | 1.77 | (1.73, 1.82) | 3,842 | 1.17 | (1.13, 1.20) | 6,749 | 1.20 | (1.17, 1.23) | 6,544 | 1.17 | (1.14, 1.19) |
| Combined with the following: | ||||||||||||
| Abdominal bloating/distension | 81 | 2.86 | (2.24, 3.47) | 34 | 1.20 | (0.80, 1.60) | 144 | 1.86 | (1.56, 2.16) | 104 | 1.34 | (1.09, 1.60) |
| Change in bowel habit | 130 | 4.64 | (3.86, 5.42) | 84 | 3.00 | (2.37, 3.63) | 123 | 2.68 | (2.21, 3.14) | 120 | 2.61 | (2.15, 3.07) |
| Dyspepsia | 337 | 2.02 | (1.81, 2.23) | 208 | 1.25 | (1.08, 1.41) | 426 | 1.54 | (1.40, 1.69) | 359 | 1.30 | (1.17, 1.43) |
| Dysphagia | 52 | 3.15 | (2.31, 4.00) | 26 | 1.58 | (0.98, 2.18) | 65 | 2.24 | (1.70, 2.78) | 56 | 1.93 | (1.43, 2.43) |
| Rectal bleeding | 176 | 3.02 | (2.58, 3.46) | 215 | 3.69 | (3.21, 4.18) | 157 | 2.03 | (1.71, 2.34) | 227 | 2.93 | (2.56, 3.31) |
| Change in bowel habit | 2,101 | 4.64 | (4.45, 4.84) | 1,278 | 2.82 | (2.67, 2.98) | 1,471 | 2.39 | (2.27, 2.51) | 1,581 | 2.57 | (2.45, 2.70) |
| Combined with the following: | ||||||||||||
| Abdominal bloating/distension | 16 | 3.29 | (1.71, 4.88) | 11 | 2.26 | (0.94, 3.59) | 26 | 2.12 | (1.31, 2.92) | 29 | 2.36 | (1.51, 3.21) |
| Abdominal pain | 211 | 4.78 | (4.15, 5.41) | 111 | 2.51 | (2.05, 2.97) | 174 | 2.10 | (1.79, 2.41) | 209 | 2.52 | (2.19, 2.86) |
| Dyspepsia | 66 | 2.95 | (2.25, 3.65) | 52 | 2.32 | (1.70, 2.95) | 73 | 1.91 | (1.47, 2.34) | 112 | 2.92 | (2.39, 3.46) |
| Dysphagia | 14 | 4.46 | (2.18, 6.74) | 10 | 3.18 | (1.24, 5.13) | 9 | 1.88 | (0.66, 3.09) | 14 | 2.92 | (1.41, 4.43) |
| Rectal bleeding | 121 | 8.46 | (7.01, 9.90) | 93 | 6.50 | (5.22, 7.78) | 98 | 5.22 | (4.22, 6.23) | 92 | 4.90 | (3.93, 5.88) |
| Dyspepsia (any) | 3,072 | 1.41 | (1.36, 1.46) | 1,941 | 0.89 | (0.85, 0.93) | 3,091 | 1.03 | (0.99, 1.07) | 2,998 | 1.00 | (0.96, 1.03) |
| Combined with the following: | ||||||||||||
| Abdominal bloating/distension | 232 | 1.48 | (1.29, 1.67) | 164 | 1.04 | (0.89, 1.20) | 495 | 1.10 | (1.00, 1.20) | 414 | 0.92 | (0.83, 1.01) |
| Abdominal pain | 363 | 1.67 | (1.50, 1.84) | 272 | 1.25 | (1.10, 1.40) | 439 | 1.16 | (1.05, 1.27) | 492 | 1.30 | (1.19, 1.41) |
| Change in bowel habit | 35 | 2.16 | (1.46, 2.87) | 29 | 1.79 | (1.15, 2.44) | 29 | 1.14 | (0.73, 1.55) | 56 | 2.20 | (1.63, 2.77) |
| Dysphagia | 106 | 2.31 | (1.88, 2.75) | 37 | 0.81 | (0.55, 1.07) | 83 | 1.74 | (1.37, 2.11) | 53 | 1.11 | (0.81, 1.41) |
| Rectal bleeding | 63 | 1.63 | (1.23, 2.03) | 78 | 2.02 | (1.58, 2.47) | 72 | 1.73 | (1.33, 2.13) | 89 | 2.14 | (1.70, 2.58) |
| Dysphagia | 1,601 | 4.28 | (4.07, 4.48) | 282 | 0.75 | (0.67, 0.84) | 1,041 | 2.13 | (2.01, 2.26) | 441 | 0.90 | (0.82, 0.99) |
| Combined with the following: | ||||||||||||
| Abdominal bloating/distension | 5 | 2.25 | (0.30, 4.20) | <5 | <2.32 | 10 | 1.59 | (0.61, 2.56) | <5 | <0.78 | ||
| Abdominal pain | 123 | 5.10 | (4.22, 5.98) | 30 | 1.24 | (0.80, 1.69) | 101 | 2.00 | (1.61, 2.39) | 71 | 1.41 | (1.08, 1.73) |
| Change in bowel habit | 15 | 5.36 | (2.72, 7.99) | <5 | <1.83 | 11 | 2.53 | (1.06, 4.01) | 5 | 1.15 | (0.15, 2.16) | |
| Dyspepsia | 149 | 5.69 | (4.80, 6.57) | 18 | 0.69 | (0.37, 1.00) | 98 | 2.37 | (1.91, 2.84) | 35 | 0.85 | (0.57, 1.13) |
| Rectal bleeding | 25 | 4.07 | (2.50, 5.63) | 11 | 1.79 | (0.74, 2.84) | 15 | 2.08 | (1.04, 3.12) | 11 | 1.53 | (0.63, 2.42) |
| Rectal bleeding | 3,730 | 3.20 | (3.09, 3.30) | 3,080 | 2.64 | (2.55, 2.73) | 2,911 | 2.46 | (2.37, 2.55) | 3,271 | 2.76 | (2.67, 2.86) |
| Combined with the following: | ||||||||||||
| Abdominal bloating/distension | 18 | 2.97 | (1.62, 4.32) | 22 | 3.63 | (2.14, 5.12) | 29 | 2.04 | (1.30, 2.77) | 40 | 2.81 | (1.95, 3.67) |
| Abdominal pain | 225 | 2.94 | (2.56, 3.32) | 192 | 2.51 | (2.16, 2.86) | 255 | 1.98 | (1.74, 2.22) | 367 | 2.85 | (2.56, 3.14) |
| Change in bowel habit | 94 | 7.11 | (5.73, 8.50) | 82 | 6.20 | (4.90, 7.50) | 98 | 5.65 | (4.56, 6.74) | 108 | 6.23 | (5.09, 7.37) |
| Dyspepsia | 113 | 2.45 | (2.01, 2.90) | 107 | 2.32 | (1.89, 2.76) | 102 | 1.80 | (1.45, 2.14) | 151 | 2.66 | (2.24, 3.08) |
| Dysphagia | 13 | 2.18 | (1.01, 3.36) | 12 | 2.02 | (0.89, 3.15) | 21 | 2.74 | (1.59, 3.90) | 25 | 3.26 | (2.01, 4.52) |
Counts of cancer <5 or of IBD <5 in Table 2 are not presented, in compliance with reporting standards for minimising disclosivity risk.
* The number of patients with both cancer and IBD in the year following the index abdominal symptom consultation (regardless of prior symptoms) ranged from 7 (men with abdominal bloating/distension or dysphagia) to 95 (women with abdominal pain). See Table 3 for numbers and PPVs for the composite outcome of either cancer or IBD.
CI, confidence interval; IBD, inflammatory bowel disease; PPV, positive predictive value.